“The General who makes many calculations is destined to win”–Sun Tzu

“Most people have the will to win. Few have the will to prepare to win.”–Bobby Knight

“What are you prepared to do?”–Sean Connery in “The Untouchables.”

What does it take to win against tougher opponents?? It is one thing to say “preparation.” This is the type of advice you will get elsewhere. Here is what “preparation” consists of in our opinion here:

1. Projections. These are a necessity but of relatively limited value against good competitors. Why? because they are relatively easy to obtain, all good players will have good projections and there are only marginal differences between the best ones. Personally I use Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA and Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster. Getting stuck on projections and dollar values, and especially when you use them as a ceiling for bidding is a trap. Fantasy baseball is not about more accurate projections; it is about exploiting others errors of judgment, a true mark of a strong General.

2. Study. Do you have the will to prepare to win?? Most do not have the will to prepare to win, especially in tougher leagues. For example, most fantasy players play in some version of a 10 or 12 team mixed league. I play in such a league. Even there, where preparation is not too difficult, it is clear that some have no idea what they are doing. Two years ago one owner in my mixed league drafted Mark Mulder with the first pick in the second round (!). In the reserve rounds this year I picked up James Shields and Joe Blanton. Virtually no one in the league knew who Shields was.

In tougher leagues it is a different ballgame altogether. My main focus now is a high stakes league where each owner has one AL team and one NL team, with a total of 49 players plus a reserve roster of seven players. This league is so deep that in a given week there can be less than 30 hitters total available in the free agent pool. What does it take to be prepared in a league like this?? At a MINIMUM I think it takes at least one hour of auction preparation for each roster spot, and probably more. Wanting to win is not the same as being prepared to win. You know you are prepared when you know EVERY player that could be brought up. If a name is brought up that you dont recognize and have to look up to identify him, you are not prepared.

3. A Plan. This should be obvious but most opponents have no plan other than something like “I will follow my budget and spend 70% on hitting and 30% on pitching etc.” Against good thinking opponents this is not nearly enough. What it takes is a specific plan for each roster spot. Our team usually has at least four or five separate contingency plans, planning for depletion of the different positions. If pitchers go over value and go quickly we have plan A; if it is OFs then it is Plan B.

4. An auction strategy. What i am referring to here is how you will bring up players and how you will deceive your opponents. The basic “strategy”, which we wont really discuss here since it is fairly clear, is that one tries to drain money at positions they dont need, and then wait for bargains. But this will get you in trouble against players who will take advantage of this. In this years auction there was rampant inflation early, and people were not prepared, leaving them with lots of money left over. This meant large inflation late in the auction also. Those who didnt see this coming had a tough time. Why?? Because they assumed that there would be bargains late, according to the basic strategy. As another example, two years ago in an auction, in our second year in the league, we auctioned five of the first ten players brought up. It is often said that “no battle plan survives contact with the enemy,” and this is especially true in auctions against good opponents.

As in poker and warfare, the key is flexibility. You must adapt to what is happening in front of you. And you must be tricky. One strategy, that we picked up from John Benson, is to have a deceit sheet that you will make obvious. This can be any title you wish, from “Breakout Candidates” to something completely off the wall like “Ch per AB integer matrix.” On it contains the names of a few players you dont want. Add to it players you have auctioned. Then when others see it you will be able to exploit them.

A good General will be prepared, will be flexible in his ability to adapt, and will always be thinking about what is happening so he can adjust. This is the path to success.