Reading books and articles across the internet on all manner of topics, it is clear that there are many “experts.” At least, that is what they represent themselves to be. Some legitimately are experts (Ron Shandler, the folks at Baseball Prospectus for example–and there are others whose exclusions here are not important) and some aren’t. In political blogs there are all manner of “experts” at least in their own minds (Barbra Streisand anyone?). But what makes an expert??

In my view there are certain things that one can look at to see if another is truly an expert. Some of these things may be unknown to the non-expert; who may not know what they are seeing.

Lets look at the following scenario: in an auction league this year Tom Gorzelanny and Adam Loewen (NL and AL only leagues) went for $12 each. In both cases, owners that I consider to be experts or close to it were involved in the bidding. In both cases other owners were somewhat incredulous as to the bidding. What did they see??

In Loewen’s case, (which hasn’t worked out so far–but again we focus here on process not results) his poor superficial numbers hid what was an excellent pitcher. He struck out approximately 8 batters per 9 IP, and got two-thirds of his outs on ground balls and strikeouts. Ron Shandler’s xERA metric (which translates the pitcher’s performance to the ERA that would be expected by this performance) had him at a 3.60 xERA, not the 5.37 he actually attained. In Gorzelanny’s case, he had superficially good numbers, had good minor league translations and had a xERA of 3.83, again showing that he was for real and not a fluke. There is of course more to it than that to be sure, but we are discussing general theory here.

The two owners involved saw what others did not. Suffice it to say that in my opinion the two owners involved in these bids could be considered experts, despite how these individual moves may work out.

Here are criteria that I use to see if someone really is an “expert”:

1. Knowledge. The expert knows things that others don’t. The expert has knowledge on many matters relevant to the process at hand and is always gaining more knowledge. An example would be that an expert can provide a reasoned answer to many questions, such as “why is it a fallacy that hitters hit worse with two strikes,” or “in fantasy, why should I not chase wins” or “who will emerge from the Phillies bullpen with saves.” They may come to a different conclusion than other experts but they will evince a thorough knowledge of the issue.

2. Strategy. A true expert will know and use strategies that non-experts don’t even know exist. To borrow from the writings of David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth on poker (from whom this example comes and whose writings inspired this article) an expert may use a Game Theory based bluffing system that non-experts don’t even know exists. In fantasy baseball, an example would be knowing about something like the Low Investment Mound Aces strategy. Whether a particular strategy is good or bad to use in a given context, the expert knows them and can use them should the need arise.

3. Independence. A true expert will deviate from conventional wisdom and even his own typical strategy should the situation be favorable; he will not be tied down to any preconceived set of rules. It may just be that he has a different opinion, or it may be that it is for a specific tactical reason. An example: a league allows daily pickups that become effective on the following Monday’s games, but gives priority to lower teams in standings. An owner is constantly picking up various pitchers and then cutting them a few days later to hide the pickups he really wants. Or perhaps an owner that rarely spends money on pitchers is willing to bid $30 on a pitcher this year. In that case you would be well advised to bid $31 if that owner is an expert.

4. Flexibility. A true expert can use many different strategies, can tailor his planning to given situations, and can take advantage of a situation as it presents itself through judgment and knowledge. The expert doesn’t need to read specific advice from trusted websites or other sources of information in order to come to a conclusion, though they may be invaluable; he or she can make good decision based on a thorough knowledge of fundamental theory. There are an infinite number of situations that can arise. One would be foolish to, for example, follow trusted dollar value projections to the letter regardless of their judgment, but many owners will do just that.

Sun Tzu counselled: The colors do not exceed five, but the changes of these five colors can never be completely seen. The flavors do not exceed five, but the changes of the five flavors can never be completely tasted. The import of this is clear; in fantasy a good grounding in theory is the five colors and five flavors.

5. The Thought Process. Last, and most important, is the thought process. The expert considers many variables, (hopefully most!) and can sift through them in a logical fashion to come to a reasoned decision. The owners described above would be good examples. No further examples are needed; the permutations here are endless.

Either you have the will to prepare to win or you don’t; but you can rest assured that if you don’t there are plenty of owners that do. The victorious General first realizes the conditions needed for victory, and only then engages in battle. The losing owner fights first and then looks around for victory.