This week I wanted to focus on the hoary dictum of “buy low, sell high.” Generally this is good “advice” if we can call it that. What you are trying to do is maximize profit; and it is assumed that players will revert to form, and this assumption is the basis for the purchase or sale of the given player, be it high or low. However, each case must be looked at in context and analyzed thoroughly, and often upon closer analysis this assumption is wrong. So this week I will be taking a look at players where I believe the conventional wisdom is wrong.

Am I recommending that you go out and acquire or trade these players as the case may be? That is not what we do here; we give you our analysis and leave it up to you to decide what to do. I point this out because many readers expect thier decision making to be usurped by supposed “expert” advice. For example, one well-known site gives dollar amount bidding recommendations on free agents; how this can be of value to anyone is beyond my comprehensive ability, and yet it is used by players. On to the player:

Bobby Abreu

Here is what I see on the negative side of the ledger:

1. His walk rate is way down. In past years it has been between 16% -18%, and now it is only 11%.

2. He is not unlucky, to date, getting hits on balls in play. His hit rate is 29%, the norm is 30%, and his expected batting average is only .215 per BaseballHQ, indicating that, if anything, he has done better than he should have.

3. He is hitting a lot less line drives and a lot more grounders. We all know that in the past four years his power has been on the decline, and his groundball/flyball/line drive splits provide an explanation.

On the positive side:

1. Despite his low BA, he is still stealing bases at a nice clip. With 8 steals, he is on pace for a 20 steal season, not too shabby for a guy batting his weight. Should he improve his BA this number could go higher.

2. In a similar vein, take a look at his run total, if you are in a league that counts runs. He has 33 to date, and is on pace for more than 90. Again, given an upward spike in BA, this number could increase.

Overall, this is a tough case. The indicators suggest that there is a real decline in skill. But how much, and could it really just be a poor start?? Given the overall decline in skills I wouldn’t be optimistic for a return to his greater days. It appears that his skills decline is real, and at most he may be able to provide some speed help, but that power is gone for good.

What I find interesting about Abreu is that generally it is accepted in the fantasy community that players with “old player’s” skills (a principle coined by Bill James) will age rapidly but those with “young player’s” skills will age more gracefully. Clearly Abreu has/had young player’s skills.

Yet, the decline is real and indisputable. Baseball Prospectus uses a metric called WARP3, which is a modified, adjusted version of their Wins Above Replacement metric. Here is what it shows for Abreu:

2003-Age 30–10.0 WARP3
2004-Age 31–7.9 WARP3
2005-Age 32–5.0 WARP3
2006-Age 33–4.0 WARP3

This trend cannot be ignored, and lends credence to the proposition that he will not return to form. Whether you should buy low is up to you, but don’t do so on the basis of assuming that he will bounce back to previous levels.