It is a fundamental assumption of “real” baseball players and managers that the battle between the hitter and pitcher is a constant attempt to outwit the other. Quotes explaining this are legion. The batter expects an outside fastball in a certain situation, so the pitcher knowing that the batter expects an outside fastball instead throws a curveball or some iteration of this process; this is what we are told happens in the battle between pitcher and hitter. In this way either the hitter or pitcher expects to gain an advantage in the battle.

Most teams spend hours looking for patterns in pitches thrown by a pitcher. The hitters view hour after hour of video; pitchers who aren’t going to pitch that day chart the pitches thrown by the other pitchers in the hopes of determining a pattern. Famously, the 1951 Giants allegedly used a spy camera to watch signs from opposing catchers.

What if you were a pitcher. If someone told you that you could reduce even the most thoughtful hitter, a Tony Gwynn, into nothing more than a mere “guess hitter,” what would your response be?

Those readers who are familiar with Game Theory know that this battle between pitcher and hitter is the type of “game” that game theory can resolve. For the unfamiliar, game theory is a branch of mathematics that purports to be able to provide optimal strategies for winning a game, where a game is merely some type of conflict or contest between two actors.

There is a definite strategy that a pitcher or hitter can follow, but lets first look at a simple explanation of the principle. Lets say you are playing odds and evens with someone. You have to choose to either put out one finger or two, and your opponent does the same. Lets also assume that your opponent will wager on the outcome by offering you $1.10 for every win you obtain versus $1 for every loss. It may seem that you have a guarantee, at least according to statistics (mathematical not baseball!) since you should win 50% of the time for an expected value of five cents on every trial.

This is no guarantee, however. Your opponent may be able to out think you. He may be able to goad you into misplaying. He may be able to spot a tell on you so that he knows that you will put down an odd or an even. In all of these ways he may, in fact, have an advantage over you even though probability and statistics are in your favor.

This is where game theory comes in. Game theory turns your uncertainty into the guarantee you were seeking. How? By dictating that you use a randomizing device, such as a clock’s second hand or a random number generator. You may decide that if the second hand is on an odd number you will put down one finger, and if on an even number you will put down two fingers. What has happened? You have now taken away all of your opponents skill at goading you or reading your tells. He cannot overcome your strategy.

One thing to note is that if YOU have the skill advantage then your game theory strategy will still work, but now you may make less money than if you used your own skill. But game theory does guarantee you at least your fair share of profit based on the parameters.

The application to the battle between pitcher and hitter?? The pitcher should randomize his pitches thrown. For the normal pitcher, this strategy would be much better than trying to outwit most batters. Now it may be that for Greg Maddux (who can outwit most batters) or someone like Nolan Ryan (who may not care because he will blow you away anyway) this strategy does not maximize your advantage. In the vast majority of cases, however, the pitcher can guarantee that the batter cannot figure out what pitch is coming or where it will be thrown.

In this way even the most studious, thoughtful hitter’s preparation and skill (if it exists) can be negated simply by a randomizing device.