Continuing my analysis of some big name players that I believe will continue on their current pace, thereby thwarting the wisdom of the “buy low, sell high” cliche, lets take a look at Josh Beckett.

Of course, we first must consider the blister/avulsion, a recurring theme with Beckett. If your risk tolerance is low then by all means avoid him. But let’s take a look at what can be expected if he stays healthy.

His hit rate is 29% and his strand rate is 71% both about what would be expected. He has 8.3 K/9IP, 2.3 K/9IP representing excellent core skills. This data indicates that his performance is not generated by luck, except for possibly his Wins total; which in most cases is largely a factor beyond any pitcher’s control.

His historical record is interesting; 2006 clearly is an outlier, in terms of skills:

2003: 9.6 K/9IP 2.7 BB/9IP
2004: 8.8 K/9IP 2.8 BB/9IP
2005: 8.4 K/9IP 2.9 BB/9IP
2006: 6.9 K/9IP 2.1 BB/9IP
2007: 8.3 K/9IP 2.3 BB/9IP

So what do we have?? We have a pitcher who had improved command in 2006 as compared to his historical norms, and who has now reverted back to his prior excellent ability to strike hitters out, while retaining his improved command.

Looking at his xERA last year of 3.49, one would have expected him to be among the AL leaders; instead he posted an actual ERA of 5.01. This is mostly due to an increased HR rate, as he let up an astounding 36 HR, far above his regular rate; prior to 2006 he had never let up more than 16. His WHIP in 2006 was only 1.295 again right in line with the rest of his career, which saw WHIPs ranging from 1.181 to 1.321 (according to baseball-reference.com).

The overall picture is one of a pitcher with improved control who was very unlucky in 2006 and who has the luck pendulum swinging back to earth. Aside from injury history there is nothing in his record to suggest that he will drop off in production, aside from injury of course.

The probability for improved performance is seen in his PECOTA B/I/C rates: 23% Breakout and 54% Improve. So there was a significant possibility of an improvement in equivalent runs of 20% or more (the breakout rate).

The final clue is that Terry Francona appears to have modeled his usage of Beckett in the Pedro Martinez mold. Looking at his game by game stats, Beckett has not gone more than 8 innings in any start and never even went more than 110 pitches until his last start against the Yankees. In six of his starts he threw less than 100 pitches.

All signs look good here.