Since my “Taking Stock” Post of a few days ago, I’ve poked into 5th place in the standings, and honestly I cant figure out why. Often these gains are blips in the stats, but hopefully I will consolidate the gain in the standings and my team will really start to perform.

Lets look at my catching and 1B situation.

My NL only league requires two starting catchers. With 11 teams in the league, you can appreciate how thin the position is. The free agent wire is littered with low average, few AB dreck. If you can get some production from this position, at a cheap price, you’re doing OK. Lets take a look at the numbers, and determine whether to keep, trade or cut bait.

Ronnie Paulino, Pit. $2 S1 (2nd year - can keep for one more)

Last year I faabed Ronnie Paulino for 2, and he took over the starting job from othter contenders Ryan Doumit and Humberto Cota. I was glad to have a .300 hitting starting cacher for $2 going into ths year. When I got Shandler’s book, I was disappointed to see the the BPI numbers:

Year AB Avg xBA bb% ct% h% PX SX G/L/F (px is power index, sx speed index)
2006 442 .310 .247 7 82 36 56 79 47/23/31 (groundball/line drive/ fly ball rate)

Shandler forecasted a decline and I should have listened. Paulino’s xBA (which is his “luck neutral” batting avg) was over 60 points lower than his actual average, with 36% of his balls in play dropping in for hits (23% line drive percentage undoubtedly helped). He does not have good plate discipline, speed or power. Instead of keeping him at 2, I could have kept a $29 Jimmy Rollins, who went for $42 in our auction. There was no real value in the off season trade market for catchers.

Thus far, Paulino’s batting average is pretty much where it “should” be. Paulino’s indicators are worse then last year, when he was very lucky. Looks like his luck has run out:
Year AB Avg xBA bb% ct% h% PX SX G/L/F
2007 166 .217 .220 6 80 25 87 25 55/11/34

Paulino’s making contact at the same rate, but he’s hitting more grounders, less fly balls and far less line drives (23% vs. 11%).

There’s really little in the way of options at this point. Paulino has no trade value, and I’m not dropping a catcher who will get 450 at bats, given that the free agent catchers are a thin bunch indeed. I will hold onto Paulino in the hopes that he raises the line drive precentage and hit rate to bring the average up to a respectable lewvel.

Carlos Ruiz C PHI $2 S2 (first year - can keep for 2 more seasons)

I auctioned Mr. Ruiz for $2 - probably one of my better moments in the auction. The conventional wisdom, that R. Barajas was going to be the starter, did not materialize. Baseball Prospectus noted that Barajas is a career low OBP hitter, and rated the defensive skills about equal. BP’s scouting report noted Ruiz’s 2nd year growth at each level. He got 69 at bats in Philly in ‘06. BP gave Ruiz a nice projection, so I made him an endgame flyer. Interesting line in the Barajas BP entry: “He signed with Philadelphia, where he’ll once again block a better player in Carlos Ruiz.”

Shandler,’s skinny was promising: “Good contact hitter with line drive bat and growing power . . .Sleeper who could get his opportunity in 2007. Up[side] 12 [hr] 75 [rbi] .285.

How’s it working out?

Statistics: AB R H HR RBI SB BA OBA SLG OPS
Actual to Date: 137 18 37 3 19 1 270 324 401 726

His xBA is .273, PX 93, so his stats are right where they “should” be. His May was not as good as April, but not a big swing; he actually improved his walk rate from 4% to 10%, which bodes well for the rest of the year and could lead to further growth in skills. He’s taking advantage of his opportunity, and I am reaping the benefits of a productive $2 catcher. He’s a keeper this year, and hopefully the next 2. I doubt that he has a ton of trade value, and would move him only if asked, and for good value.

First Base

In my league we start one at 1B and one corner infielder. There’s plenty of offense at this position (and third), and you need production from these roster spots to be competitive. I’d rather pay big bucks at the auction for a scarce position and a scarce stat like steals. I view the corner spots as a potential source of cheap power and RBI’s. Unfortunately, I’m losing ground to the field in these positions, due to Jacobs’ injury, Thorman’s slump and K. Kouzmanoff’s horrible April, but promising May (more on this in my next post).

Scott Thorman 1B Atl. $3 S1

I faabed Thorman for $3 last year. When the Braves traded Adam Laroche (30+ homer guy) for Mike Gonzalez, (a set up man!) (oops, Gonzo’s now “Gonezo” for ‘07), Laroche was slotted for at least 450 ab in ‘07. Thorman slugged .438 in 133 AB in 2006, and has an OPS of 800+ in the minors. With an 84% contact rate, 127 PX (anything over 100 is pretty good, though average for 1B), and .275 xBA, I figured Thorman could be another good cheap regular. Plus, I figured the Braves were onto something in Thorman if they wre willing to part with LaRoche after the year he had.

A good April (878 ops, .276 xBA, 155 PX) was followed by a horrid May (590 OPS, .241 xBA - but still 125 PX). Thorman’s mired in a 6/43 slump, and could lose at bats to J. Saltalamacchia.

Thorman’s a streaky hitter, and can hit homers in bunches when he gets hot, but boy does he kill your stats when he’s in this kind of funk. Mr. Thorman’s days may be numbered on my roster, but I’m giving him until at least the end of June to turn it around. The Braves may not be so generous. I need him at 1B until Mr. Jacobs returns.

Mike Jacobs, 1B Marlins - $7O (last year - free agent next year)

I faabed Jacobs for $7 back when the Mets didn’t have a First Baseman, and he hit 11 HRs in 112 ABs in ‘05. As BP noted, in ‘06 he started slowly, finished badly, but smoked the ball in between. Shandler saw a .300 avg with power in ‘07.

Jacobs had a great April (944 ops, 175 px), but tailed off in May before going on the DL with a broken bone in the right thumb. Turns out he had been playing for weeks with the broken bone, which at least partly explains the dropoff. Since Jacobs was part of my plan to get Adrian Gonzalez ($5 S1) in a “dump” deal, his injury was untimely. I may need to ride him the rest of the year. When he returns in a week or 2, I’m hoping that he resumes his April production.

To sum up, I don’t see much trade value in any of these players, possibly Jacobs if he starts raking when he returns. The free agent pool is pretty thin at these positions, so it’s likely that I’ll be keeping all of the above and keeping my fingers crossed, at least for the next month.

Next post will include an analysis of my 3B and middle infield.