The season is just over two months old. One third of the games have been played. Now is the best time to take a look at where your team stands: enough time has passed for a large enough “sample size” of stats to perform a meaningful analysis, but there is still enough time to make adjustments to change course in a meaningful way.

My league: NL only 5×5 (standard stat categories) keeper league with a $260 salary cap on auction day. During the year, you have a $100 free agent acquisition budget (faab) and a $360 “active” salary cap in season (including faabed and traded players). You may keep an auctioned or faabed player at the bid salary for up to three years, and no long term contracts. First year is listed as “S2″, Second, “S1″, and final year gets an “O”, which means that an “O” contract player will be available in next year’s auction. Two weeks prior to the auction, each player submits a “divine nine” list of keepers; no team may carry more than 9 players from the previous year. You may keep less than nine.

Last year, I traded two keepers, including Hanley Ramirez, to beef up for a run at the money; I poked my head in front in early September, and faded to third, which gets you your money back. Thus far: 2 years in the league, 2 third place finishes.

This year, I had a decent keeper list, but an awful auction. I paid $14 for Taylor Tankersley, and filled my roster with $12 left on the table. Enough said. What happened? A lack of preparation. I did not devote enough time to each roster spot, and lacked depth of knowledge for some of the key players. Enough crying over spilled milk, lets take a look at my roster as presently constructed. Remember, S2 players were either auctioned this year or faabed.

Starting hitters:
Ronny Paulino(pos - c)(sal:2 contract: S1)
Carlos Ruiz(c)(2 S2)
Scott Thorman (1b) (3 S1)
Kevin Frandsen (2b) (1 s2 - faab)
Rafael Furcal(ss) (29 S2)
Pedro Feliz (3B) (12 S2)
Kevin Kouzmanoff(corner) (12 S2)
Alex Gonzalez (mi) (5 S2)
Matt Diaz (of) (9 S2 -faab/reserve rd pick)
Chris Duncan (of)(3 S1)
Luis Gonzalez (of) (6 S2)
Kevin Mench (of) (11 S2 - faab/res)
Alfonso Soriano (of) (26 S1)
Cesar Izturis (ut) (5 S2)

Reserve Batters

Mike Jacobs (D.L.) (1b) (7O)
Matt Kemp (Minors) (5 S2)
Nate McLouth (4 S2)
Jose Valentin (D.L.) (5 S2)

Active Pitchers:

Francisco Cordero (28 S2)
Anthony Lerew (7 S2 - faab)
John Maine (6 S1)
Oliver Perez (11 S2)
Chris Sampson (2 S2 - faab)
Rafael Soriano (6 S2)
Taylor Tankersley (14 S2)
Billy Wagner (34 O)
Brandon Webb (29 S1)

Reserve:

Edgar Gonzalez(6 S2 -faab)

Team Status: I’m currently in 8th place with 59.5 points, but only 3 points out of 4th. Third is “within reach” at 66.5, and two teams have separated themselves from the pack, sitting at 76.5 and 78.5.

Hitting, I’m in the middle of the pack in Average and Home Runs, and towards the bottom in RBI’s, Runs Scored and Stolen Bases. Trending up in SB’s and stagnant otherwise.

Pitching, towards the bottom in Wins, and tops in Saves. Middle, but moving up in ERA, WHIP and K’s.

The point of taking stock at this point is to determine which way to go: play for this year or “dump” and hope to better next year. I have a strong bias against dumping early in this league, especially if: 1) your bad “luck” could change (if your poor performance is at least partly attributable to “luck”); 2) if you trade shrewdly (lemons for cherries), there’s a chance you can move into the money spots; 3) you don’t believe that you can get one of the “best keepers in the league” in a dump deal(remember, you can only keep 9, so whomever you get in a trade must be significantly better than the 9th best keeper on your team for the dump to be worth it).

An even overriding factor: it’s more “fun” to go for it and compete. And fantasy baseball really is about fun; money is just a nice bonus, the “cherry on top” of a successful fantasy year. So my advice to you, if after taking stock, it’s a close call between going for the money and seeking a dump deal, go for it.

What do I need to compete? Clearly, I need a batter, preferably one with average, speed and some power. I would love to add a good, not not necessarily great, reliable starter to get me some wins.

What do I have? Saves. I have 4 more saves than the next team, and then there’s a big drop off after that. I may be able to hold onto 2nd place in saves even if I trade away Wagner or Cordero. I shopped them a few weeks ago to the top three teams, and did not attract too much interest. I’m discovering that the owners in my league do not want to trade top position players for top closers, at least at this point in the season. Looks like I will need to consult the experts to figure out which players I should keep, which I should deal, and which players on the other teams I should target. I also need to be more active on the waiver wire.

Over the next week or so, I will look at each roster spot, and go “beyond the numbers” to determine which players to keep and which to trade.