Has Matt Cain regressed from last year or is he unlucky?? The answer may be surprising.
I drafted Matt Cain in two shallow mixed leagues in the hopes that he would continue and build on last year’s performance:
IP W L ERA WHIP
190 13 12 4.15 1.28
Cain also struck out nearly a batter an inning, and the era was inflated by a 69% strand rate, which means that his relievers allowed 31% of Cain’s baserunners to score (75% to 80% is the norm). Cain also had a strong second half in 2006, striking out over a batter an inning, with a 3.36 era and a 1.21 whip. Cain’s hit rate was 29% (.290 batting average for balls in play) for both halves of the year, which means that the gains were attributable to skill, not luck. The main concern going into 2007 was the high walk rate: 4.1 per 9 inn.
So far this year:
IP W L ERA WHIP
96.3 2 8 3.46 1.31
Sure, the W-L record is disappointing, but the ERA is only .1 higher than his strong second half of 2006. This year, the relatively low ERA is more due to luck than skill: Cain has benefitted from a 26% hit rate and a 74% strand rate. Disturbingly, Cain’s K rate has dropped from 8.4 in 2006 to 6.4 in 2007, and the walk rate has increased to 4.5 per 9 inn. According to Baseball HQ, Cain’s ERA “should” be 4.77. Wins aside, it looks like Cain has regressed in 2007. Month to month, there has been wild fluctuations in ERA: April 1.54, May 5.25, June 3.55. His control, however, has been consistently poor: Apr. 4.4bb/9 inn, May 4.5, June 4.6. Interestingly, Cain’s K rate was actually highest in May, at 7.8, the month with his highest ERA. Note that even this K rate is lower than either half of 2006.
If Cain is going to have a big second half, he will need to either increase his K rate to 2006 levels or drastically lower his walk rate, perhaps to under 3 batters per 9 innings. Based upon Cain’s established levels, the former appears more likely than the latter. If you own Cain, you may still be able to receive significant value in a trade with an unwitting owner, due to his low ERA and the “expected” second half surge.
3 responses so far ↓
1 ChrisV82 // Jul 27, 2007 at 4:58 am
He’s just been a tremendous bust. None of his four starts since your last post have gone 6 IP, he’s still giving up too many walks, and only once did he have a high K game. I guess looking back at his WHIP and ERA+ last year, though, he may have been slightly overrated. I certainly bought into the hype.
And how about Dontrelle Willis? Looks like he’s going to have back-to-back bust years. Maybe the Marlins should have traded him after all.
2 Matt // Jul 27, 2007 at 6:15 pm
Thanks for the comment. With the D Train(a former favorite of mine as a Faabed him when he first came to the bigs and took MLB by storm), just too many innings on that arm. Given his herky jerky throwing style, it looks like he’s surgery waiting to happen. The over under is 1 year on when he will need surgery. After that, who knows. But he’s definitely going in the wrong direction. He’s still young, so he probably isn’t done. If he manages to stay healthy, he could become a Livan Henrnandez, not that that would be a good thing right now.
3 al // Jun 28, 2008 at 11:36 pm
What are your thoughts on MAtt Cain now? he seems to have regressed and i wonder if he will ever be more than an average starter…
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