Those of you who haven’t been playing this game for a long time may not be aware of how bad this position used to be. If you were in an NL or AL only league there were years when there were only one or two good catchers in the entire league. I should point out, however, that though there are lots of good catchers out there, in my high stakes league I have Rod Barajas and Miguel Montero in the NL and Dioner Navarro in the AL (in addition to one of the guys below). Ugh. I cannot recall when there have been this many good fantasy catchers out there, and we are NOT even including Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Ivan Rodriguez or John Buck, who do not merit this discussion at least so far this year.
Here are the top contenders for this season:
Russ Martin-.292/.361/.404 8HR 43RBI 11SB. Many analysts think he is the most valuable fantasy catcher, and it isn’t hard to see why. 11 SB from the catcher position? He is John Wathan with actual hitting skills. It is hard to imagine that he will continue this SB pace since the rigors of catching in the summer heat should take a toll. Wathan had 36 SB in 1982. That record seems safe, but Martin has to get his props.
Victor Martinez– .320/.376/.533 13 HR 57 RBI. Another great half season by V-Mart. The problem is that he is almost always good in the first half, but drops off in the second half. I was among those that thought his power had peaked, and would continue to drop. So far I have been wrong. His 13 HR put his career high within reach if he can avoid the second half swoon. Last year he avoided it so maybe things are changing for the better for him.
Jorge Posada–.344/.402/.564 9 HR 43 RBI. Jorge winning a batting title?? Unlikely, but still possible and that is a wonder to behold. There has been much discussion on Baseball prospectus, and elsewhere, about his Hall Of Fame chances. A batting title puts it in reach. Jorge just murders lefties. However, his chances of winning the batting title are as good as mine are of having a pillow fight with the females of Lost. He has a 37% hit rate, which is simply unsustainable. It was at over 40% earlier in May, so the correction has begun. Sell high if you have him.
Kenji Johjima–.308/.335/.481 7 HR 27 RBI. Now here is my one good fantasy catcher in my high stakes league. I love this guy. He is a (very) poor man’s Vladimir Guerrero; a 2% BB rate and a 91% contact rate. His hit rate is only 31%, implying that the .300 BA is no mirage. He is less valuable in real baseball because of the lack of walks. You can win some fantasy championships if he is your best catcher (or at least I hope so…)
Of this group, it seems clear that Martin and Martinez both have good chances of keeping up their current paces. Both have normal hit rates and xBAs in line with their actual batting averages. Posada has started to fall off already and should continue to do so for the next moth or so until he normalizes. The issue is then whether you prefer Martin’s speed or V-Mart’s power. For myself, I still do not see Victor hitting more than 25 HR. But I also can’t see Martin getting 25 SB. Assuming that their SB and HR end up approximately equal, I have to give the slight nod to Martinez.
There are many who believe that Martin is the most valuable fantasy catcher, and he has a good claim to that position. But it appears to me that Martinez has a slightly better claim. For now. And I reserve my right to change my opinion in a month…


1 response so far ↓
1 guadalupejoe // Jun 21, 2007 at 12:43 am
great site sir. written for the intellectual baseball fan. after traveling the greyhound bus line the past week i can appreciate a person who is literate… keep up the good work… joe guadalupe,CA
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