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Fantasy All Stars - Relievers

July 12th, 2007 · No Comments

Patrick DiCaprio

Matt finishes the roundup of first half fantasy all stars with relievers.

First, about the All Star game itself. I fell asleep. I was still exhausted after a loooong weekend and another loss at softball (we’re 2-7, but “should” be 4-5 with 2 last inning collapses). I heard about the big controversy the next day - why didn’t LaRussa pinch hit Pujols with the game on the line in the 9th? Listening to Chris “Mad Dog” Russo, on the Fan (WFAN 660am in NY), he said that Pujols appeared “annoyed” after the game that he wasn’t used. Pujols then told reporters in St. Louis that he was in the training room getting “treatment” in the 9th inning and wasn’t even dressed. WHAT? Do you think that Pujols would have been available if the Cards were in the running for a playoff spot? Or if another manager was in charge? How many more years in a row will the AL have the home field “advantage”. We can debate about whether there is an advantage, but playing in an NL park takes one of the better bats out of the lineup, while in an NL park the DH is usually a utility player or 4th outfielder. So I do believe that there is a significant “home field advantage”, at least in the World Series.

On to the relievers. I will name two closers and two “other” relievers for each league. Due to the limited amount of innings pitched by relievers, most of a reliever’s fantasy value is in the amount of saves. However, a dominant reliever (<1 WHIP <2 ERA) can help mitigate some bad starts by your staff.

NL - “Closers”

Several closers are having terrific seasons and are deserving of honors. I limited myself to 2, so here goes:

Francisco Cordero (MIL) - 27 saves, 3 blown saves 2.85 era, 1.067 whip

Cordero, who cooled off a bit in June after an unconscious first two months, has actually been a bit “unlucky” with a 33% hit rate. His expected era of 2.56 is 0.3 runs lower than his actual era. 12 k’s per 9 and only 3 bb’s per for an excellent 4/1 ratio. He’s also been stingy with the long ball, allowing only 0.3 per 9 innings. He’s on my team; no one is willing to give me full value in a trade, so I’ll sit back and enjoy what should be a solid second half as he goes for 50 saves.

Takashi Saito (LAD) - 23 sv 2 bs 1.47/0.71

Saito has been dominant, with 47 k’s and only 4 bb’s in 36.7 innings! Saito’s been somewhat lucky with a 24% hit rate and 91% strand rate. With batters hitting only 12% of batted balls hit for line drives, the hit % may stay lower than the norm.

NL - “Others”

I say “others” because both middle relievers and set up men should be eligible. While vulture wins are nice, I discount them due to luck factors. I’m looking for dominance here and future closer potential.

There’s a strong case for these setup men being in a more valuable role in MLB than closers because they come in and actually are tasked with putting out fires, as opposed to pitching a scoreless 9th with a 1 to 3 run lead.

Rafael Soriano - (ATL)

2-1 5 sv 0 bs 2.79/0.83

I love Soriano, having auctioned him for $5 in the NL only league. He filled in “perfectly” for Wickman, and could take over as closer if Wickman continues to struggle. He’s striking out 8 per 9 and walking less than 2. His 20% hit rate is suppressing his era, and 50% fly ball rate makes him vulnerable to the long ball. Right now, I still think he’s a good bet for a valuable, 10-15 save second half.

Heath Bell - (SDP)

3-2 0 sv 2 bs 1.78/0.89

The Mets gave up on Bell, who was extremely unlucky whenever he took the mound for them. He’s been touted by those in the know forever, and he’s finally delivering. In over 50 innings, his k to bb ratio is a solid 9.4 to 2.5 (per 9). Only one home run allowed this year. Stuck behind an ageless wonder in Trevor Hoffman for saves.

AL - “Closers”

J.J. Putz - (SEA) 24 svs 0 bs 0.88/0.59

Sick. Filthy. Your extreme adjective here. 44 k’s 7 bbs in 41 innings. He picked up right where he left off last year. His era is lower than it should be due to a 16% hit rate, but with a 13% line drive rate, his era shouldn’t go up that much in the second half.

Jon Palpelbon - (BOS) 20 sv 1 bs 1.92/0.86.

Palpelbon’s been solid, with 46 k’s and 10 bb’s in 32.7 innings to date. He is continuing his low h% from last year at 25%; 15% of batted balls are line drives and 52% are fly balls, which makes him vulnerable to the long ball - allowing 0.8 per 9 innings so far this year - not too bad. While it would be interesting to see how he would do as a starter, you may not want to mess with success.

AL - “Others”

Rafael Betancourt - (CLE)

1-0 0s 1 bs 1.13/0.66
I gave Betancourt the nod over rookie of the year candidate Hideki Okajima, largely because of his 36/3 k/bb ratio in 39.7 innings (VS. 37/12 for Okajima). Boroski has converted 25 of 27 save chances, but with an era over 5 and a whip of 1.455, he may be on a short leash.

Pat Neshek - (MIN)

3-1 0s 1 bs 1.70/0.73

As an “NL only” guy, I have to admit that when I saw this guy, I said “Pat Who?”. With 52 k’s and 13 bb’s in 42.3 innings, he’s a force to be reckoned with. His whip was 0.78 as a rookie last year in 37 innings, so he’s no fluke. Interestingly, all 8 runs allowed this far have been via the long ball, which is not surprising given his extreme 55% fly ball rate. Neshek’s era has benefitted from an extremely low 16% hit rate and an 88% strand rate, so expect the whip and era to rise in the second half.
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