Fantasy Baseball Generals

Fantasy Baseball Warfare is a great matter to a nation; it is the ground of death and of life; it is the way of survival and of destruction, and must be examined.–Sun Tzu

Making a Large Trade

July 7th, 2007 · No Comments

Patrick DiCaprio

Looking at the large trade and why it is usually bad strategy.
In a prior post I discussed The Big Picture. One thing that I frequently hear on podcasts and see in message boards is the “large trade” where one owner is trading five guys for another five or sometimes more. In higher stakes leagues where there are strict salary caps, positional eligibility issues etc this can be a necessity. But in the garden variety mixed league it is much more likely that the owners making the deal are lazy or just not thinking about the process correctly. They have no idea about their Big Picture.

As an example, on one podcast I recently heard a proposed deal that would send Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder and Barry Bonds for Gary Matthews, Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Delgado, with throw ins on both sides. On a message board I saw a trade where an owner was going to trade Miguel Cabrera, Grady Sizemore, Aaron Hill, Freddy Sanchez and Xavier Nady (he also said he was in the middle of the pack in HR and SB)

These are some trades!! Those of us who don’t play in a shallow mixed league never have the pleasure of making deals like this. On the other hand shallow leaguers do not have the pleasure of watching a low cost pitching staff get shellacked for a month, and believe me there is nothing quite like seeing a 3.1-6-5-5-3-0 pitching line night after night.

The problem with deals like these is that there is usually no viable strategic plan you can have for your team that requires you to trade players like A-Rod or Prince Fielder, or even worse Miguel Cabrera AND Grady Sizemore in the same deal. In a five-for-five deal the problem is exacerbated; no reasonable strategy could possibly require a five-for-five trade. The problem is one of variation. When you are dealing five-for-five and all are actually playing it is simply impossible to get a good gauge on how the deal will affect your team. There is simply too much “noise” in the actual stats for the rest of the year.

Typically the deal is made because of laziness; the owners simply want a quick fix and don’t want to spend the time working out a better deal or deals. If you are sufficiently strong that you want to trade A-Rod, or Miguel Cabrera and Grady Sizemore is there any reason you have to trade four other guys to get a deal done??

If you look at deals made in expert leagues, or deals made by expert owners, you almost never see a large deal. When the league is shallow the players being traded are mostly quality players. There will rarely be a trade that is so one-sided (that isn’t vetoed) that one can make huge gains. You simply can’t really change the value much when you are trading five quality players for another five. And yet there is no lack of trying. You simply can’t expect to make huge gains in points when you are trading A-Rods for Prince Fielders, except in rare circumstances.

In almost every instance you will do better by dealing piecemeal. Put in the work and effort and make a few phone calls. I will have more to say on the “email blast” and other usual mixed league mechanisms for putting players on the block, most of which should not be used by anyone who gives the process some consideration. The Fantasy General should not succumb to laziness and sloth. articleId=’11588′;

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