Matt looks at Kemp’s recent power surge and gives a short and long term forecast.

Matthew Ryan Kemp. He’s only 22, and he’s raking right now:
AB HR R RBI SB SO BB AVG OBP SLG
115 6 23 23 3 27 9 .374 .416 .591

As a 21 year old Rookie in 2006, he slugged .448 in 154 at bats, with 7 home runs and 6 steals. That year, he stole 31 bases at 3 levels (including the 6 with LA).

Based upon a favorable projection from Baseball Prospectus’ “PECOTA” system (356 AB,
.853 ops 13 sb - and 24 hr/23sb in a full season of PA’s), I auctioned Kemp for $5 as an “endgame” OF fill in.

Kemp, at 6′4″/230, and nicknamed “The Bison”, has some interesting “Comparable Players” on BP’s “PECOTA Card”: Sammy Sosa(6′/220), Vernon Wells (6′1″/230), Orlando Cepeda, Corey Hart(6′6″/220), Jack Clark and Carlos Beltran. Good company indeed.

Kemp broke camp with the big squad, and got 14 at bats (6 hits) before crashing into the right field wall on April 9, separating his right shoulder. Upon his return from the DL on April 27, he was optioned to AAA Las Vegas so the Dodger could keep Wilson Valdez and his .572 ops as further “insurance” against Rafael Furcal’s slow recovery from a high ankle sprain.

Recalled on June 8, he has not stopped hitting, and he started slugging in July, hitting 5 home runs. Is he this good?

Not right now. At least, he’s not anywhere near a .374 hitter. His hit rate for balls in play is 42%, well above sustainable levels. His power and speed indexes on Baseball HQ are 131(PX) and 117(SX), with any amount over 100 considered above average. Kemp could benefit from a bit more patience, especially since the book on Kemp is that he has trouble hitting the junk. Going forward, his speed should pick up and the power could wane a bit, based upon the fact that he more of a ground ball (47%) than a fly ball (38%)hitter, with only 15% line drives.

Kemp has seen fairly regular playing time at the corner OF positions at the expense of Andre Ethier and my other $5 “steal”: Luis Gonzalez. At the rate he’s going, how can you not play him? When Kemp inevitably cools off, we will see his real level of development. Will he flail at balls in the dirt trying to “make something happen?”(the typical path of an inexperienced “toolsy” player). Or will he take a patient route, letting the game come to him. My fear is that in the short term, the former is more likely. If he demonstrates maturity at the tender age of 22, he could be a special player indeed. Either way, Kemp has demonstrated “mad skills”, and has plenty of time to mature. Whatever happens the rest of the year, I am looking forward to two more years of solid production on my Roto roster.

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