Matt looks at “his guy”, Oliver Perez.

Born in August 1981 in Mexico, Oliver Perez debuted for the San Diego Padres (who signed him in 1999 as an amateur free agent) in 2002. Making 15 starts his rookie year, he struck out 94 batters in 90 innings and walked 48, with a 3.50 era and a 1.32 whip. During a “sophomore slump” year with a 5.38 era (with the same k and bb rate), he was traded with Jason Bay (and a ptbnl)for Brian Giles, Perez broke out in a big way in 2004 (when I auctioned him for $3 in the last year of my AL/NL auction keeper league (don’t go there):

GS IP H SO BB ERA WHIP
30 196 145 239 81 2.98 1.15

Baseball reference bullpen notes that Perez’s fastball averaged 93 miles per hour and topped out at 95 in a “magical” season.

Perez lost the magic touch in 2005. His fastball lost zip (down to 88-92 miles per hour, and worse, he lost command (perhaps due to a lack of confidence in blowing his fastball by hitters). Still, Perez struck out nearly a batter an inning but walked over 6 per 9! Perez lost two months with a self inflicted toe injury incurred by kicking a laundry cart in frustration.

Perez was even worse for the Pirates in 2006, posting a 6.63 era in 15 starts before the Pirates sent him to the minors (calling up Tom Gorzelanny) and gave up on him, including him as a “throw in” player in a deadline deal sending Roberto Hernandez to the Mets for Xavier Nady (this deal was precipitated by Duaner Sanchez’s season ending cab ride in Miami - serendipity for Perez and the Mets). Perez was still erratic the rest of the regular season, with a 6.38 era in 7 starts. Yet, he struck out 41 in 36 innings. On September 6, 2006, he shut out the Braves in the second game of a double header, fanning 6 and walking 1. Perez followed that outing with an 11 strikeout, 2 walk performance in only 5 innings in which he allowed 4 earned runs. Everyone remembers Perez in Game 7 of the NLCS, when he was forced into action by a decimated rotation and delivered a clutch 6 innings of 1 run ball (4 k’s 2 bbs 4 hits).

Perez’s home page on Baseball Reference asserts:
“2006 NLCS Game 7 was not a lone grace note, but the overture to a career symphony.”

My thoughts exactly.

Heading into the 2007 NL only auction, I told my (co-owner) brother that I was targeting Perez. He rolled his eyes when I went double digits ($11) for him. I would have went to $15. Risky, but based upon 2004, too much upside to let some other owner get him cheap.

To date, aside from a few hiccups (mostly due to losing the strike zone) Perez has delivered:

GS IP H SO BB ERA WHIP
15 94 73 85 37 3.14 1.16

Perez’s arm strength is largely back (thanks to Rick Peterson?): he works in the low to mid 90’s on a regular basis. 17 of those 37 walks came in 3 starts. In the other 12 starts, Perez has been consistent, pitching into the 7th in 10 of those other starts, and sometimes dominant, four times striking out 8 or more. Like Sid Fernandez (who never have up more than a hit per inning in a season), Perez is is own worst enemy. He rarely gets roughed up, though he is prone to the gopher ball. His fastball is in the 90’s and his slider is a nice pitch to keep hitters off balance (though not as good as Sid’s); if he only had a change like Hamels’ . . ..

Turning to Perez’s underlying stats, he has been a little bit “lucky” in the first half with a 25% hit rate (but not too far off from his 28% hit rate in 2004). His 3.5 bb per nine is slightly better than his 3.7 rate in 2004, though his k rate is “only” 8.1, down from 11.0 in 2004. If Perez can avoid those erratic starts where he loses the plate, and keeps his back healthy, he can put up even better numbers in the second half. At age 25, there is room for maturity; he really doesn’t need more growth.
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