A baseball smackdown in real life, as the Padres pit Ensberg against Kouzmanoff.

I thought this was an interesting trade, and was a big supporter. So were the guys at Ducksnorts, an excellent Padres blog. I don’t have time to read tons of team specific blogs, so I have to pick and choose. I think it is the best of the Padres blogs, so if you are a Padres fan check it out.

Here we have two relatively equal guys, at least on cold dope.
Kouzmanoff:
13 HR 51 RBI .236/.293/.412 6% BB rate 77% Contact 27% hit rate .247 xBA

Ensberg:
11 HR 37 RBI .231/.319/.405 11% BB rate 77% Contact 26% hit rate .253 xBA

The major difference is that Ensberg hit his 11 HR in about 70 fewer plate appearances, and he walks about twice as often. These are no small factors when making decisions at the margins in a close race in the NL West.

Defensively, The Hardball Times has Ensberg at 1.4 Win Shares for the year. Kouzmanoff is at 1.3 Win Shares.

So what does this decision boil down to?

1. Disappointment with Kouzmanoff. This is clearly justifiable at this point. There is no reason to write him off for the future of course. But they need an upgrade to stay competitive in the NL West.

2. Cost. They gave up virtually nothing to get Ensberg.

3. Strategy. Towers is an excellent strategist. He knows that since Ensberg and Kouzmanoff are equal he loses nothing by getting Ensberg. But perhaps on some occasions he gets a gain over Kouzmanoff. This is another example of the “dominant strategy from game theory” that I have written about before. He loses nothing and might gain something some percentage of the time.

4. Ensberg-One can see that on a per plate appearance basis he has been better than Kouzmanoff by a thin margin. However he does have a historical track record of success. He was a borderline MVP candidate in 2005. 2006 was a bit of a lost season as he was dealing with shoulder problems. In April and May of 2006 he had 17 HR. After the injury he had 6 in the remainder of the year. Gambling on a return to form may yield tremendous profit, and isn’t likely to cost them any production.

5. Wally Joyner. You have a player like Ensberg who in his last healthy season was a down-ballot MVP candidate. He has a shoulder injury after a good first half of 2006. His 2007 season is a wash so far. There was some thought that Ensberg altered his hitting mechanics because of the injury. The Padres brass showed faith in Joyner to turn Ensberg around.

Overall I can’t say enough about this move. It is part of the little campaigns in a larger war that lead to victory. Towers’ made use of all available information, considered all of the relevant variables and made a good reasoned decision. He is a force to be reckoned with.

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