What can be expected of top prospect Adam Jones??
Well, it’s about damn time. In one of my leagues, (previously addressed here)which allows a team to keep players essentially forever, a few years ago we drafted Adam Jones. We have been patiently waiting for him to get called up.

Fantasy players all know that feeling; reading 800 different transaction sites and emails for even the slightest glimpse of news on a player. That’s part of the fun of this game, right?? Needless to say my diligence was finally rewarded when I saw that Jones was called up. So what can be expected??

Jones has a top pedigree. A first-round sandwich pick in 2003 by the Mariners (37th overall), he played only at short season Everett his first year, followed by the Arizona Fall League. His first real test came at age 18 for Wisconsin in the Midwest League. His performance there was good for an 18 year old: 11 HR 72 RBI .267/.314/.404. However he had 124 K and only 33 BB, with a K rate of 22%.

The next season Jones made it up to AA at the age of 19, already marking himself as a top prospect. His strike zone judgment improved a bit to 19%. His totals, split with 271 AB at High A and 228 at AA, were 17 HR 70 RBI .275/.328/.456 16 SB. This is an excellent performance for a 19 year old, and at this point Jones was getting noticed for his great potential; this season was a significant improvement over his first full year.

He was then promptly rushed to the Majors, where he was clearly overmatched. But at age 20 in Tacoma he again shined, and again improved off of his prior year, despite the jump in class. At Tacoma he hit 16 HR 62 RBI .287/.345/.484 with 13 SB. In 380 AB he also had 78 K and 28 BB. The ratio is not great so we would not expect a great batting average, since his plate discipline and eye need work.

As usual, the scouting perspective is provided by Keith Law, a friend of the blog, and more importantly, Director of Scouting for ESPN. He provided me the following scouting report:

“He’s an exciting player. Outstanding defensive center fielder with a 7 arm (2-8 scale, 8 is the best) and tremendous range. At the plate he’s got a very quick bat and average power already, projecting plus in the future, but struggles some with pitch recognition and can be beaten with breaking stuff. He’s going to be a star, but he’s the type of guy who can have a lot of ups and downs as he adjusts to big-league pitching, especially since he hasn’t really been challenged in the minors.”

First stop for projections is his PECOTA projection. PECOTA has him at approximately 4.5 wins above replacement through age 25. Not too shabby; that is a tremendously valuable property. They also have him with a projected .281 EqA this year. Some other players with a .281 EqA: Adrian Gonzalez, Adrian Beltre, Alfonso Soriano and Carl Crawford (proving himself worthy of my $38 bid in the high stakes league. Ugh.)

At first glance Jones looks like he might be able to help immediately. The projections for his fantasy stats are not tremendous though, so he may not be all that useful to fantasy players this year. BP has his 50% PECOTA with 14 HR, 62 RBI 12 SB .262 AB and .317 OBP, for a full season. So we aren’t looking at great counting stats for the remainder of the year. Keith’s scouting report appears to be buttressed by Jones’ record.

John Sickels, in his 2007 Baseball Prospect Book gave him a B+ grade, an excellent grade. He notes that Jones had significant strike zone issues in his first exposure to the majors, which have to be fixed if he wants to sustain long term success. John also advises that Jones has a great glove, and runs the risk of being miscast as a leadoff hitter. For fantasy players, John states that he does NOT expect Jones to put up great numbers in the short term.

Jones should play everyday, despite the fact that the Mariners are in the thick of a race. He could be an upgrade even with his modest projected totals. MLB.com’s Mariners’ Depth Chart has Jones as being a reserve behind Ibanez and Guillen, but it is hard to believe that he was brought up to sit on the bench. Both Ibanez and Guillen have struggled at times, especially Ibanez in the power department, but if you believe the projections, Jones is only a very small upgrade.

Don’t expect great things out of the box. His AAA numbers this year were boosted by a good dose of fortune; he had a 37% hit rate with only a 75% contact rate, two numbers that don’t go together well. His .314 BA in AAA is likely a mirage. A correction in his hit rate at the Major League level could be disastrous to his performance.

Overall, Jones is the baseball equivalent of a four-flush in poker. You may win a big pot, but there is a significant chance of a short term loss. Be prepared for an initial struggle.

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