Previously Matt wrote about Matt Cain, and what has gone wrong. Since then have things gotten better or worse??

In a prior post, Matt wrote about Matt Cain’s slide this year. Yesterday, his name came up on MLB.com’s Fantasy 411 podcast, and then last night he had the misfortune to pitch against Paul Maholm, who I thankfully had active in a head-to-head league.

At the time Matt wrote his post in June, Cain was struggling. He was 2-8 in 96.3 IP, with a solid 3.46 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. However, as Matt discovered, that was actually a lucky performance, buttressed by a 26% hit rate (norm is 30%) and a 74% strand rate (norm is 70%).

It hasn’t gotten better on the surface. His current line:

4-13 in 150.3 IP 3.77 ERA 1.33 WHIP 29% Hit rate 71% Strand, xERA 4.49.

For a guy who was once considered a possible ace, and sooner rather than later, this is apparently discouraging. His hit rate and strand rate have evened out to close to the expected norms, and he is still superficially pitching better than his skills indicate, since his expected ERA is 4.49. How has it come to this??

Let’s take a closer look at his peripheral skills. His K rate for the year is a solid 7.0. His BB rate is 4.1, showing that he lacks control, and this results in a command ratio (K/BB) of 1.7 on the year, below acceptable levels for a starter in fantasy leagues (at least in my opinion).

In the last month his K rate has been 8.3, a very good, top level rate for a starter. The increased K rate has coincided with slightly better control, a 3.8 BB rate. His strand rate has been regressing to the mean during this time; it is only 61% for the last month.

What does all this mean?? It is conflicting information. My take is that despite his xERA on the season, there is cause for optimism. His surging strikeout rate, and his ability to maintain his ERA while confronting a 61% strand rate is definitely a sign that he is starting to turn the corner.

The next month may tell us a lot about his projection for next year. I would bet that he maintains his increased K rate, so that even if his control doesn’t get significantly better he will be a solid long term investment. If his control improves, then he may well reach his predicted lofty status; his skills are still ace-level. All he needs to do is stay the course.

What I see (perhaps optimistically) is a guy who has been able to pitch well despite the correction in his hit rate and strand rate. Granted, he was lucky earlier on, but he has maintained his excellent skill set and has maintained a good ERA despite the corrections in hit rate and strand rate. This is no easy feat. We can perhaps opine that he is still lucky, but I think it is too easy to say that. A young pitcher who increase his K rate while being unlucky, and still keeping his ERA under 4 is something to look forward too.

Giants fans can look forward to a lot of 1-0 and 2-1 games next year with Cain and Lincecum. The only question is whether they will be winning or losing them. Fantasy players can look forward to a possible bargain next year. You can bet I will try to scoop him up this offseason in my leagues. It should be all good from here on out, health permitting.

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