Both have had some recent ups and downs, to put it mildly. Here is what is going on.

John Maine In the last month Maine has an ERA over 6 and a 1.32 WHIP. What is going on? First let’s look at his overall season totals:

13-7 3.59 ERA 1.20 WHIP 26% hit rate 75% strand rate 7.8 K/9IP 3.4 BB/9IP

This is a very good season, however one that is certainly the result of good fortune. Maine, in 153 IP has still had a very lucky 26% hit rate and 75% strand rate. His ERA should be 4.15. He would still be a very good pitcher, but he is clearly over his head for the season.

His ERA the last 30 days of 6.10 is a correction; his WHIP is not that much different than his yearly WHIP, being slightly higher on a 28% hit rate (compared to 26%). It is just that the runners he puts on are scoring more; his strand rate is regressing to the mean. In fact, his strand rate is 59% in the last month.

My prognosis is to expect the struggles to continue.

Jeremy Bonderman Here we have a different beast altogether. Bonderman has been unlucky this year in both hit rate and strand rate, with a 33% hit rate and a 67% strand rate.

His 4.60 ERA is a mirage; it should be 3.49 based on BaseballHQ’s xERA metric, which we use here religiously. So he is the converse of John Maine; I expect him to get better and to be more valuable over the balance of the season.

Bonderman’s overall skills are vastly better than Maine’s. Bonderman has a K/9IP rate of 8.0 and a BB/9IP rate of 2.1, with a K/BB ratio of 3.8, much better than Maine’s

These two guys clearly show the effect that good fortune can have even over the course of a long year and even with two very good pitchers. For fantasy purposes, and especially if you are in a keeper league, Maine would be very close to the top of my “to trade” list since he is overrated compared to his skills.

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