With all of the nefarious dealings going on, clearly I couldn’t sit on my hands. So here is the first of my two moves in response.

Clearly after the slew of trades going on I had a few options. The first is to just cry about the whole thing and do nothing. Since I am not Bud Selig crying about stadium financing, this wasn’t an option. I had to deal.

There was no way for me to even respond to these trades in like kind, even if I were so inclined. So I had two moves to make. The first was to try to get an NL middle infielder (since I had Graffanino starting at the MI slot, and had a struggling Rickie Weeks at 2B. I wasn’t about to wait to hear that Weeks was hurt (though I never expected him to be demoted!) The second was to get another AL power bat, since my move to get Ortiz to pump up my AL offense failed as a result of Ortiz’ power outage.

My target? Rafael Furcal. His name was bandied about by his owner as a possible trade target. Fortunately his owner needed NL pitching. I offered up Matt Morris or Dave Bush.

I loved Bush and still do, much to my detriment. I though that Morris had no chance to continue his hot streak at the time. His ERA was just about 3 and his skills said there was no way it would stay that way. His expected ERA was 4.60. Bush, on the other hand, was unlucky, at least according to my usual analysis.

In offering Bush, I knew that this owner would land on Morris. Morris had already gotten me five wins and a sub-3.00 ERA, so it was time to cut loose. Morris’ superficially fine numbers made him a lemon.

This is a common but underused tactic. I wanted to keep Bush because he rated to get better, but trade Morris because he rated to get worse. To make sure the other involved owner saw the superficial merits of Morris, offering Bush made sense. He would reject Bush and his higher ERA in favor of Morris and his lower ERA.

Against a strong tough owner this tactic would never have worked. But against a guy who isn’t savvy enough to see through this tactic it will usually work. Again, we come back to the point that in every transaction you should think about who your opponent is and the best way to accomplish your objectives. The more he knows the tougher it is. But against weaker owners often they can be manipulated to your objectives. And if it doesn’t work, there is nothing lost.

I also wanted to jettison Jack Wilson, who at the time was simply killing my batting average and my psyche. If you don’t play in deep leagues where you simply have to trot out a guy like this every day, well, you are missing the fun of fantasy baseball. That is, if you think it is fun to get an ulcer.

The deal:Morris-7s3, Wilson-8s3 and Randy Winn 14s3 for Furcal-29 s3, Mike Bourn-0L9 and Mike Wuertz-2s3.

The deal was made on June 23. Since then Morris has an ERA of almost 6.00 and a WHIP close to 1.7. Wilson has been good, batting .348 since then, but only 2 HR and 1 SB, so he had very little to offer. Winn has also been mediocre batting .265 with 2 HR and 3 SB.

Bourn got hurt, damn him. He is a perfect example of the type of player that has good value in a very deep league. He will have a decent BA, will get a bunch of SB and, more importantly, is a solid keeper at $7 next year (if you recall, a 0L9 is a rookie, who becomes a $7 next year). He will hopefully be back soon.

Though I dispute the general proposition that there are a horde of guys who improve in the second half as a matter of course, one guy who actually might is Furcal. That is the conventional wisdom right??

Well, I should have listened to my own advice. Furcal has been an absolute dud. Since I obtained him he is only batting .243 with 3 HR and 3 SB. I would rather have kept Jack Wilson.

With Bourn hurt, Furcal stinking up the joint and Wuertz getting cut, this trade has been a disaster. If you look at the cost it isn’t THAT bad. But in terms of opportunity cost (i.e. what I could have gotten) it is a nightmare. I took a pitcher who had good value in Morris (though I knew it was illusory) and gave him away for nothing. I could have kept Wilson and traded Morris for another player who would be better than Furcal.

My article on the fallacious thinking of analysts who put stock in second half players has come to pass, though, sadly, to my detriment. We all make mistakes, but this is one that should not have occurred.

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