Earlier I discussed Jon Daniels performance after he was impugned by Peter Pascarelli. How has he done?? It appears he is a winner now. But there is reason for caution.

Here, I opined that Daniels performance at the trade deadline might be the make-or-break time in his career. This was noted by almost everyone so it wasn’t exactly the most original comment. Now it looks like Daniels may have the last laugh. Sadly, I missed Pascarelli’s podcast yesterday but if anyone knows what he had to say about the deal drop me a line.

First the Teixiera trade. This is a tremendous haul for Daniels, especially since the whole world knew they were going to trade Texy. Tom Hicks was apparently quoted as saying he offered 8 years and $140M to Boras, who declined the offer. I wish I was in a position to decline $140,000, much less $140M. So Daniels did a great job since it was clear they weren’t going to sign him after 2008, and since next year they would be a lot more desperate to trade him, it is much better to act early than late.

The haul was Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz, Beau Jones and some guy with the longest name in baseball history. When I heard of the deal, my first stop was John Sickels’ 2007 Prospect Book. He rates Andrus as a B+, the number 27 hitting prospect in baseball. Saltalamacchia was a B, and the #34 hitting prospect.

On the pitching side, Harrison was a B and the #41 pitching prospect. Feliz was a C+, which is still not too bad for a pitching prospect. Beau Jones was a C, but he note that he touches 95 mph, and has “higher physical potential.” Jones is pitching very well this year, 5-0 2.96, 48 IP 46K 12 BB. It is the Carolina league so it is a pitchers haven (which bodes well for Andrus, who is also in the Carolina league, and holding is own at 18).

Strategically this appears to be a win for Daniels. He replenishes his farm system, gets guys who can help right away, and guys who can help in the long term, so he covers all his bases. Not only that, he clears room for Botts to come up and play 1B if he so desires.

Daniels has allowed his plan going forward to be flexible. He has Laird and Teagarden at C, and Botts to play 1B in the short term. He can try Botts at first and Salty at C to start. If it works, then Laird will be traded, and he has some value as a catcher who can hit a bit and who can run. Texas will have two above average players at C and 1B. If the plan fails, he can use Salty at 1B, keep Laird for now and hope for Teagarden to continue his development. He may still get two above average players out of plan B.

The drop off for this year may not even be that great. Botts was hitting .321 with a .442 OBP, 13 HR and 74 RBI. The combo of Botts and Salty can easily produce 80% of the combo of Laird and Teixeira for the rest of the year, so even in the short term they don’t lose that much. So for 20% of their production he gets five guys who can all help.

On to the Gagne trade. The haul here is not nearly as tasty in the short term. But Engel Beltre is an intriguing guy. According to lonestarball.com, Keith Law had the following scouting report on Engel Beltre.

The wild card here for Texas is center fielder Engel Beltre, a 17-year-old signed for about $600,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2006. Beltre is an exciting player with a lot of ability. He has a clean swing with some loft in it, a plus arm, and he might be able to stay in center. If not, his bat will play in an outfield corner. He’s playing in the Gulf Coast League at an age when most Dominican prospects are still playing in the Dominican Summer League, and he’s holding his own, with five homers (tied for eighth in the league) and a .198 isolated power (10th in the league). I like the Rangers’ willingness to take a short-season prospect in each of their two deals this week (pitcher Neftali Feliz was involved in the Mark Teixeira trade), knowing that contenders are nearly always willing to part with those guys to get a deal done. If this trade is going to turn out to be a win for the Rangers, it will almost certainly be because Beltre developed into the star he’s capable of becoming.

I have read speculation that if Beltre were available in the draft this year he would have been a first round pick. If so then this appears to be a pretty good risk for Texas. Since they are going nowhere this year, they can afford to wait and see. You would like to have seen them get more for Gagne, but I would also like to get a spongebath from Charlize Theron.

As far as Gabbard and Murphy are concerned, sadly Gabbard may be Texas number two starter. But even if he is just an innings eater that has value to a team like the Rangers. Long term though it is hard to see Gabbard as anything more than a fifth starter type. Every once in a while though these guys go on to very good careers.

Murphy is essentially a toolsy first round pick who washed out. He can still have a decent career as a fourth outfielder but most likely that’s all he will do.

The real wild card here though is Daniels himself. As I have pointed out earlier, when you are dealing with people that are arguably smarter and better than you, you need to be wary. Of course, Daniels thinks he is as smart as anyone I am sure. But as a third party, I see two deals with two excellent GMs, both of whom are strong planners, both of whom have won the World Series, both of whom have good records with young players, one of whom is a likely Hall of Famer.

Being true to my roots here, I have to give some credence to the fact that their knowledge and skill is better than Daniels’. Then, these trades may not look so rosy. Salty was poor last year for a good portion of the season, and hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire this year, though he has been solid. Every other player he acquired is very young, or a pitching prospect, aside from Murphy. These are two very high risk populations.

So, is it possible Daniels was snookered by two better more skilled tacticians?? Yes. The initial reaction seems to be positive, but this factor simply cannot be ignored. In any analysis of a deal the skill of the guys making the deal may be a more important factor than any other, and here it is not in Daniels’ favor.

That said though, Texas fans can be happy for now since it appears he has gotten a good haul for his players. Now you just have to hope he is right.
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