My response to a question posed on a recent podcast–who would you rather have in 2008, Braun or Cabrera?

In a recent podcast, someone posed a theoretical question. Assuming you had to pick either Braun or Miguel Cabrera for 2008, who do you choose?

This is about the easiest question to answer, surprisingly, and about the answer I believe there cannot be the slightest doubt among reasonable analysts. Of course you take Miguel Cabrera, and it is not even a contest.

As good as Braun has been, his performance is likely to be a fluke. He has a mere 75% contact rate, and only walks 6% of the time. His BB/K ratio, or “eye” ratio as they call it at BaseballHQ.com, is a very low 0.26.

As a result of these somewhat disappointing skills, his expected batting average is only .289. His performance this year is buoyed by a 37% hit rate. As I have pointed out, hit rate for pitchers does not work the same way as for hitters. For pitchers we expect regression to a mean of 30%. For hitters though there are often reasons why they will be higher than 30 %. Usually these are the most skilled players. The garden variety major leaguer (if there is such a thing!) will regress to 30% but the best players will routinely put up hit rates higher than that simply because their skills allow them to do so.

Miguel Cabrera has posted hit rates in his full seasons of 34%, 36%, 38% and 38%. Braun has one season at 37%. Miguel Cabrera has had the following splits and skills:

Braun has clearly had an unexpected season. But with an xBA of .289 and an eye ratio of only 0.26 it is tough to see a repeat. But even if he does repeat, is there any reason to think that Cabrera will still be worse next year?

One way to look at it is by dollar values generated. This year, according to BaseballHQ, Cabrera has been worth $30 and Braun $31. So they are roughly equal. Braun next year is more likely to regress, but even if he repeats he will be equal to Cabrera’s output for this year.

Yet, as can be seen above, this year is probably Cabrera’s worst. So his worst full season right now is worth as much as Braun’s unexpected breakout.

Age? Cabrera is 24, Braun is 23. This is slightly in Braun’s favor. But on the other hand Cabrera will be hitting his prime.

How unexpected is Braun’s debut? According to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, Braun has exceeded his 90th percentile projection. I think that qualifies as “unexpected.” There is nothing in his minor league record to suggest that he would be this good ever, much less as a rookie. Here is Braun’s minor league performance record. If you see an MVP candidate here you are a better analyst than me!

It is all about risk. Cabrera is as close to a sure thing next year as exists, Braun is not. They are both roughly equal in value. One will likely improve next year as he reaches his prime, and one will likely regress to his expected performance.

Even if you love Braun and even if you think I am nuts for saying he isn’t as good as he appears that doesn’t matter. Exploiting misinformation is what matters. If Braun will be overvalued next year based on his stunning debut, and Cabrera may be undervalued compared to his normal production then that is an argument in favor of Cabrera also. So even if you think Braun will repeat Cabrera is still the better fantasy bet.

One caveat: if you are in an auction league where players are more likely to be correctly valued, or are against lots of tough good owners, then Braun may have better value next year, since they will likely go through the analysis I have done here. In that case Braun may be a better value, because now you are betting the other way!!

But on pure performance alone, I don’t see this as a particularly close decision. It is Cabrera by a mile.

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