Some interesting notes from the Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds Report.

With one week to go in the baseball season there isn’t much left to do for the fantasy owner other than to sit back and let the chips fall where they may. I will be posting on some post-mortems for my teams and thinking about next year in the offseason. But for now there isn’t much to do.

So, I was looking at a very interesting tool at Baseball Prospectus, their Postseason Odds Report. For those who aren’t familiar, it is a calculation of what the chances are for every team to make the postseason, broken down into chances of winning the Wild Card and the division.

Right now the Red Sox are a virtual lock for the division over the Yankees, at 88%-12%. Despite all of the hemming and hawing, including references to “psychological damage” if the Sox blow the lead, it still looks like a very solid lead. The Yankees are almost at 100% to make the playoffs. Who would have thought that earlier this year? I can recall lost of talk that the Yankees were “done” earlier in the season, and here they are having virtually sown up a playoff berth.

What is interesting is the fact that The Yankees have vanquished the once mighty Tigers. At one point in July the Tigers were at a stunning 93% chance to make the playoffs, according to Nate Silver’s recent BP blog entry. I was a big believer in the Tigers earlier this month, and even told a friend that I thought the Tigers were the favorite to make the playoffs over the Yanks. Oops.

The NL is where the action is. The Mets have a 95% chance of winning the division, but only a 3% (!) chance of winning the Wild card. The surging Phillies, one of my favorite teams to watch (and I finally got to see them at Citizen’s Bank Ballpark this year) are just about even money, with a 48% chance of the playoffs.

In the Central it is all over but the eventual firing of Ned Yost, and deservedly so. The battling Cubbies have all but vanquished the Brewers, with a 96% chance of winning the division. The Cubs are setting up to be a dangerous team, especially if the Dr. Jekyll version of Carlos Zambrano shows up. The Brewers are almost right up there with the Tigers in the great collapse list, having once had an 82.2% chance of making the playoffs, which is now whittled down to 12.1%

The D’Backs, astoundingly, have a 95% chance of making the playoffs, with an 87% chance of winning the division. This despite being outscored this season 704-690, resulting in an expected winning percentage of under .500. They have done this with huge disappointing seasons from some of their most touted players, especially Carlos Quentin and Stephen Drew.

Even more impressive is the fact that according to MLB.com, not one Diamondback is hitting .300. And I don’t just mean starters. Not even a pinch hitter, or a reliever who got a hit in two at-bats or a part-time player. Not one.

Even more, they are in what is alleged to be a good hitters park. Micah Owings has the second highest batting average on the team! With this offense, he could be a very potent weapon in the playoffs if allowed to hit. I won’t hold my breath however.

The Rockies may have gotten hosed in the West. They have the best expected winning percentage in the West by a .547-.544 margin. But not over the Padres. The second best team in the West this year by this measure has been the Dodgers, who have a zero chance of making the playoffs. The Padres are at .518 and the seeming champion Diamondbacks are a notch above the patehtic Giants, at .487-.481.

I have to admit that the Postseason Odds Report is a very interesting read, and I try to take a look once a week at least. It is based on a simulation of one million seasons, and there is no shortage of intriguing nuggets.

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