A reader request on Carlos Lee.

A reader asked about Carlos Lee and whether he should be kept. Carlos had an excellent season of course:

32 HR 119 RBI .303/.357/.528

Personally I would like to see that OBP a bit higher, but other that that his season is fully supported by his underlying skills:

90% contact rate 30% hit rate 0.84 BB/K ratio .290 xBA

In fact looking at Lee historically he is one of the most consistent players around. He has hit between 31 and 37 homers each of the last five years, has had between 113 and 119 RBI in four of the last five years, and at least 10 SB. If not fantasy gold, it is certainly fantasy silver. Getting top tier production on a consistent basis is of tremendous value, both in real baseball and fantasy. No wonder the Astros are paying him $100M.

One cause for optimism is the fact that his contact rate has increased the last two years to 90%, from a typical rate of 86%. This makes it more likely he will be able to sustain a high batting average, given an 8% walk rate.

It is hard to see why anyone would have concerns about him. He is very consistent, hits in a good hitters park and is in the middle of his prime at 31. He produced about 30 of value this year, as he typically does.

Would I keep Lee at $30? No. There is no reason to keep him at $30 unless there is some reason to think you will turn a big profit. In fact, it appears that he may be due for a slight slide in 2008, if only because of his BA being 13 points higher than his xBA. For hi, a slight slide means he will be more of the 2003 version than the 2004 version, but that’s very faint criticism.

His consistency actually makes him a poor bet for a keeper if he is at value since you won’t expect to turn a profit.

So the question as to whether he “should be kept” is too vague, but aside from that, the general question of his value is an easy one. There is no reason to expect him to produce anything other than a typical $25-30 season next year. Once you know this, then the question should be an easy one to answer given the league parameters.

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