Who should get a one year contract: Ortiz, Morneau or Sabathia?

Fresh off a wire-to-wire victory in the high stakes league, there is still no time like the present to begin thinking about next year. One rule we have is called the “Z” rule. Essentially it allows you to sign to a one-time, one year contract any player whose contract expired this year. The primary focus is to allow one more year of a great bargain. The cost is an extra $10 in salary per year, plus a transaction fee that goes into the prize pool (I think it is $40 or $50). We can resign one player in each league.

The players that fit the bill on my AL team are David Ortiz, C.C. Sabathia and Justin Morneau.

Justin Morneau I acquired Morneau two years ago in a trade for Alex Gordon. That worked out fairly well since it was early enough last year that I got Morneau’s surge. His contract is 12L1, meaning that he was auctioned at $2 a few years ago, then had his contract extended after year two for another two years at $5 per year. So, if I “Z” him he becomes $22 next year.

Frankly, of the three he has the lowest salary so that is an argument in his favor right off the bat. Sabathia is $16 and Ortiz is $20, so they would become $26 and $30.

Morneau was definitely a disappointment. He only produced about $19 or $20 in value this year despite his 31 HR and 111 RBI. He hit only .271 with a .343 OBP. He was beset by a few nagging injuries this year. His K/BB ratio was up a tick or two. Overall it appears that his skills stayed pretty constant, but that he was hit with a bit of regression this year.

His second half was disastrous though, with only 11 HR and a .263 BA. August and September were particularly atrocious, with BAs of .221 and .215 with only 3 HR.

David Ortiz There isn’t much to say about him in this context, the only real question is how much profit can I expect if I sign him for $30. This year he produced about $32 or $33 in value, depending on format. His BA of .332 though is likely due for a fall, as BaseballHQ has his xBA at a more pedestrian .306. Unlike Morneau, Ortiz roared home this year, with an 80% hit rate in the last week and a 40% hit rate in the last month, batting .393 with a .509 OBP. No wonder why Sox fans think he is clutch.

Ortiz is 31 years old and still in his prime. It is questionable though how much profit he will turn next year especially if he is due for a correction in the batting average department. This is a very tough call. It may all come down to projections.

C.C. Sabathia As much as I love him (and I do love him having made a preseason prediction that he and Lackey would be one-two for the Cy Young this year that may be thwarted by yesterdays Red Sox hero) it is very tough to make him a $26 pitcher. It is a matter of my general philosophy that I do not want to spend $30 on a pitcher unless he is a sure thing. I paid $30 for Peavy this year and he was the first starter I paid $30 for in at least five years if not longer. So starting with that premise the burden is on me to convince myself otherwise!

In his favor there are quite a few factors:

1. He will certainly go for more than $26 in the auction.
2. In many ways the Indians’ offense underachieved this year, so it is at least conceivable that he will still get enough run support to rack up wins next year.
3. We have a tough innings requirement, and C.C. is a workhorse. One pitcher like him goes a long way to making the innings requirement.
4. If I do keep him he will definitely have excellent trade value in the event that I cannot retool to make a run at first place again. That is, if he is healthy of course.
5. His xERA is a stellar 3.34, so this year was no fluke. And he was worth exactly $26 in a five by five format.
6. His strand rate and hit rate were unlucky, if you can believe it. He had a 32% hit rate and a 74% strand rate, both above expected norms.

So, assuming good health he appears to be a very solid bet to repeat this season again next year. Improvement wouldn’t be a surprise either based on those hit and strand rates.

A big negative: 241 IP right now, and we haven’t even had a playoff start yet. prior to this year he had never gone 200 IP, though he was over 190 every year. An increase of 50 innings is generally a red flag for the following year.

There is no sure lock among any of these players. Most owners would likely think that three of the best players in the AL are surely worth $30 and would have no problem with a decision to extend any of them. Yet, down this road lies a fifth place finish in 2008.

This is no easy decision at all, and the weight of the evidence here is that even though these are three fantasy studs, none may be worth extending. it is essentially a risk/reward calculation revealing marginal profits to be had at much higher risk than needed in all three cases.

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