Some more discussion on C.C. Sabathia and a key principle of auction strategy that is usually not considered or even discussed elsewhere. Plus, how could I have forgotten about “Z”-ing Bobby Jenks?

Somehow I forgot to include a discussion about Bobby Jenks in my prior post about the “Z” rule. Jenks clearly had a career year. Generally he has had poor control with walk rates of 3.5 and 4.0 in 2005 and 2006. He was successful by having huge strikeout rates of 11.5 and 10.3. This year was a reversal. He only struck out 7.8 batters per nine innings and walked 1.8. His 2.77 ERA and 0.89 WHIP are tasty also. Plus he has a $10 salary, so if I “Z” him he becomes a $20.

No matter what one may think of Jenks, this is good value but not tremendous value. He may very well reproduce a $30 season next year, earning me a profit of $10, and he will be a great trade chit no matter what happens. In tough, competitive keeper leagues one prime strategy in dealing with closers is to speculate and try to hit a home run. The goal is to spend $5 or less, earning a profit of $15-20 and then using that money on more dependable offensive players.

Additionally, you can usually trade for closers during the season. So the issue becomes whether you can spend this money more efficiently in the auction, and often you may be able to.

It seems like this should be a “no-brainer” decision, but there are a multitude of factors to consider, not just whether I will turn a profit with Jenks. I haven’t made a decision yet of course. As always, when making a decision one of the most important considerations is what your co-owners will do.

The key principle of auction theory referenced above is that every time I can make my opponents make an error I gain points, and if I make an error I gain. This is sort of the fantasy baseball analog to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker, though in fantasy baseball it only really sees its full flower in auction dynamics.

During the season this is not necessarily the rule to follow. Unlike the FTOP you can’t just make this theorem the fundamental principle of your entire strategy. While you do, in fact, gain points every time your opponents err, you can’t do much to induce these errors aside from propaganda. In auctions however, and in any zero-sum endeavor, it is vitally important.

With Sabathia, for example, if I believe he is a bad risk at $26 and will go for $30 then I should throw him back. Fantasy baseball is a zero sum game, and every mistake my opponents make that I do not results in profit/points for me. So if there is a chance for a $10 loss if he goes for $32 (as an example) then this is an easy decision; not only do I avoid the loss myself, an opponent takes a bigger loss and $32 comes out of the available auction money pool.

This may seem self evident, but literally every position on a fantasy roster is an opportunity to either gain or lose points. So your calculations when deciding whether to keep a player should notjust be a matter of whether player X will gain me profit.

I don’t recall having seen this discussed anywhere, but the majority of auction articles you will read are generally couched in terms of whether a player will outperform his projection. This is only half the battle, but in 99% of cases it is the only consideration used for most owners. Just as important is how others in your league will view a player, and whether they you can do better by not earning that projected profit yourself, but letting others take a risk.

Of course it all comes down to money. If salaries are low you are better off with the risk, as salaries get higher then it is a sliding scale. If you can imagine the supply and demand curves from elementary economics, there is a point of maximum profit where the curves intersect. Same principle here. There is an equilibrium for every player with salary on one axis and risk on the other.

Of course you can’t actually calculate it, but thinking about it in this way is every bit as important as just the basic question of whether a player will earn a profit.

This principle is probably the most important one to fully understand and exploit if you are in auction leagues. It is not easy to goad tougher owners into making mistakes, but the attempt should always be a part of the decision making process. Every year there are players like this that I throw back, and usually at the auction you hear a comment like “you should have kept him” when he is auctioned for more than I could have kept him. That is exactly what I am rooting for with these players.

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