Answering another reader’s keeper question on these three players.

A reader posed the following: he is in a 12-team mixed league, with two keeper slots. Each team can keep two players and can keep two rookie players (those that were rookie eligible in 2007) by replacing their ninth and tenth round picks with the kept rookie players. Which do you keep?

To me clearly the answer is Braun and Lincecum but with a proviso. Braun is an obvious choice, even though I am down on him for next year and think he will be overrated. Even if I am right he is still clearly keepable under this scenario. Both he and Pedroia exceeded their expected batting averages by 30 points or more (Pedroia exceeded his by 40). Pedroia’s value is strongly correlated with his batting average. If it plunges next year so does his value. Braun will still have power and speed.

My advice is to keep Braun and Lincecum and try to trade Pedroia at all costs. It would be a tough pill to swallow to have to cut the reigning rookie of the year and get nothing for him. So this is a situation that calls for tough negotiating tactics but with the understanding that you will take what you can get.

I would represent to trading partners that I would keep Braun as a putative first or second round pick, keeping Pedroia and Lincecum with the ninth and tenth rounders then would push hard to trade Pedroia. The representation that Pedroia will be kept is, of course, necessary. Once Pedroia is gone, then I would keep Braun as a ninth rounder, and keep a better player with the first or second rounder, or just keep the picks open.

Why? Because I think Braun is overrated. If he isn’t a second round value next year then you take a loss with that pick. If he is kept as a ninth rounder then even if I am right he will still overproduce for that slot. Hopefully you will get a true first and second round talent with those two picks, and you can always trade Braun to get a third top ten talent if the opportunity arises.

As far as Lincecum is concerned, by any calculation he will be a top 100 player next year, and should improve. The Giants may stink again next year, but aside from W-L record Lincecum will be a top 15 pitcher next year, assuming strikeouts count. His xERA of 3.63 would have been top 20 this year, only four had more strikeouts than innings.

If played right, this could be a windfall scenario if you can get a taker for Braun who is willing to give up someone like Miguel Cabrera.

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