When dealing with auctions against tougher competitors in continuing leagues there is one characteristic that is paramount.
When it comes to auctions in leagues with tough competition and where the same owners are involved year after year, it is of vital importance that the Fantasy General cultivate one area of strategy that is usually overlooked. What is the most important characteristic needed for success? We are not talking about a general plan or strategy, but about the actual conduct of the auction.
Typically most owners consider it to be accurate projections. The problem with projections is that there are not great differences between many good sets of projections. Ron Shandler has written that even the simplest systems will be accurate around 65% of the time, and no system will be accurate for another 20-25% of the player population. So what is at issue among various systems is the relatively small remainder.
That is not to say that projections are unimportant, far from it. In fact, a good projection set is a necessity. But the fact is that against better competition almost every owner will have good projections. This gives them limited value. My first time in a high stakes league I thought I was in great shape with my Baseball Prospectus book, until I showed up and nine other guys had it.
There are other possibilities as well. Another is a good plan in terms of which players to bring up and when. This tactic is of great value in certain particular instances especially late in the auction when dollars are low and small bids can go unchallenged. But overall it will not make a huge difference in your overall results unless you snag that one player you covet late in the day. The effort should always be there, but the end result may or may not happen.
In my view the most important skill to cultivate in auctions is that of unpredictability. Not only will it bear fruit in every auction, its utility is seen in virtually every aspect of an auction.
An auction against tough competition is one of the great joys of fantasy baseball. But success requires a combination of many different skills. As an example of how things can go awry, in my high stakes league there was a team last year that had the best keeper roster (by acclaim) coming into the auction. Not only did the owner have a strong keeper roster with lots of profit already in hand, he had a lot of money available.
Yet, what should have been a strong auction rapidly went south almost from the get go. His team eked out a fourth place finish, barely cashing. His auction was a disaster and set the stage for a disappointing season. The cost to him was very high, into the multiple thousands of clams (the difference between fourth and first).
There are many facets to an auction where you must be unpredictable. The list below is not exhaustive, but I wanted to address a few scenarios:
1. With regard to bringing up players, you often read hoary advice such as “don’t bring up players you want.” While often good advice, the flaw should be fairly obvious. If you never bring up a player you want then when you bring up a player your opponents will be confident you will not go the extra dollar. This is especially important in the middle and late rounds.
2. I am often guilty of this, though I made a point last year to consider my flaw, but there are also situations where other owners know that I will not typically go for $30 for any starting pitcher and rarely for any player. So when the bidding gets hot players can often know where I stand. I changed this last year, and went to $30 on a few players, ending up with a $30 Jake Peavy, a $32 Jimmy Rollins and a $35 Carl Crawford. In the future my opponents can not have any certainty as to what I will do, yielding additional profit (I hope).
3. You must make a point to get involved in almost every bid. Even if it is a player you do not want, get in there! Occasionally you will get stuck with a $15 Nick Punto (as I did last year!) but with all of this activity comes the fact that your opponents will have no idea about your overall strategy. If they do not know it they will not be able to stop it.
If you think that owners do not actively try to scuttle the plans of others then you should be involved in tougher leagues to get a flavor for what goes on. In the leagues I am in this is a common occurrence, and some owners make it a badge of honor to disrupt others’ plans. Being involved in lots of bids makes you unpredictable by definition unless your opponents are mind readers. Sam Walker’s wonderful book Fantasyland had some good anecdotes about this topic.
4. Make sure you are not beholden to your dollar values. If you show up with a certain projection set every year, your more astute opponents will not only notice but will try to use that against you. If you have the Baseball Prospectus book in your possession every year then others will know that you are likely using their projections and will have a good idea of your values (and your strategies). Of course, getting involved in lots of bids as mentioned above will make it very difficult for others to pin you down.
In no way is this list exhaustive, and I may have lots more to say as we run up to draft day. Cultivating unpredictability in all facets of auctions is of great vitality against better opponents. This is simply because the better your opponents the less value the common and typical strategies have. Keeping opponents from knowing your plans is step one to accomplishing them.
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1 response so far ↓
1 High Stakes Commish // Jan 31, 2008 at 4:32 am
Let me offer some insight beyond this. I have been in high stakes leagues for over 17 years. Each season is unique, and flixibility is key. However, there are a couple tenets that continue to play out year after year, and I consider myself a decent auctioner. A couple thoughts:
1. You won’t know any player the other guys don’t. Biggest misperception I see is people think they are smarter than everyone else. In a good league like mine, there are no secrets. But, good research is no substitute for a good poker face and wise money management. What you hope is that everyone is spent out by the time you bring your guy up. Occasionally you’ll find a good “crickets” pick, but more often than not, it’s because other people are hoarding money for other players.
2. More important than accurate player projections is money management. Know what you need to acquire in the auction and make sure you have the funds to do it. Very often, I see people overbidding early, and not having the money to fill out the team later. Also, I see people that stuck too much to their values, passing up on players a $1 or $2 more would have gotten. later on when they realize they missed everyone they wanted to get, they end up overspending late in the auction to get the scraps that are left ($8-10 platoon catchers, whe they could have had that stud outfielder for just $2 more). Manage your money and know what remaining availability should cost. If stud 1B are alll gone, then draft a middling everyday 1B at half the price and rework your budget to overby another area where there is talent and trade for the deficiency later.
3. Know what other guys need, and use that to flush the money out. As opposed to nominating players you don’t want, nominate players that will take others out of what you want to bid on - there is a difference. The first (non) strategy is about just naming names - the second is about naming the name (even lower $) that will take an opponent out of bidding against you. If it is just down to you and one other to get a young Ryan Braun (pre-hype), throw out a higher-hyped rookie or everyday bat at that positon and let the other teams overpay to get him. Once he does that, it becomes harder for him to also bid against you for your player. Also, if it is late rounds and one team is hoarding cash, throw out a player you know they need to have. Cut they budget down to earth.
4. Don’t underestimate the importance of having players other teams will want. Case in point - Johan Santana. Who cares if he goes for $40…if he is one of the best pitchers in the league, he will help your stats, and you can always trade him to another team and realize the excess value you paid in the trade on the back end. It could be you turn him for $10-15 of value later in the season. I was able to turn Johan Santana into a very keepable Hunter Pence, Houston Street and possibly keepable Kerry Wood…and oh, but the way, Santana is a non-keeper back in the auction this year. I traded pence for some others later in the seasoon, but you get the point - Santana probably cost me $10-15 over the cost of the guys acquired. You won’t get that same deal for an overvalued Jon Leiber or Victor Zambrano. Similarly, if you know another player a team really wants - bid them up, and if you end up with the player, the other team will eventually trade you for him. Just make sure these are people you want to have on the roster.
5. Finally, everyone, and I mean everyone, UNDERESTIMATES auctioin inflation. Here is a simple example…Let’s assume we all have 20 dollars to buy 2 players - they go for $10 each, but the reality is, the bad ones will still go for a coupe bucks - and the good ones will still go for $15. Now, let’s assume each team in the league, because of freeze rosters, has $25. That’s what good freeze rosters do. Now each team has 25% more money to chase the same 2 people. BUT…the common mistake most people make is that they assume all player costs rise by 25%. This is the error in logic. The bad players still go for a couple bucks. All the excess will fllow to the good players, so thir value now goes up by 30-40%. In my previous example, instead of a $15 player and a $5 player, the team will likely get a $20 player and a $5 player. This is where people go wrong. You take one league with good keeper rosters and another with poor keepers, and I bet the weak players are roughtly the same price in both leagues. The inflation of the top and upper-middle players is where it hits.
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