On a recent chat someone asked whether the 2006 or 2007 Capuano will show up. This is where skills analysis can provide a clue.
On a chat on a famous baseball website, someone asked the following:
Will the real Chris Capuano please stand up? Will the 2006 or 2007 version show up his spring?
This is exactly the type of question that requires looking at his skills and not his actual results. Here is what we see:
In 2006 Capuano had a 31% hit rate, a 72% strand rate, 1.9 BB/9 IP and 7.1 K/9 IP. In 2007 his hit rate went up to 34%, the highest rate in the last five years. This is almost certainly luck related; his K rate went up to 7.9 and his expected ERA remained steady-3.94 in 2006 and 4.16 in 2007. He was also plagued by a below average 68% strand rate, again by far the lowest of the last five years and 4% lower than the 72% figure from 2006.
Clearly his poor 2007 season was the result of luck and not skills. So which one will stand up? It will be the same Capuano that he has always been. Expect an ERA in the 4.00-4.30 range. Is this a guarantee? Of course not, bad luck can always remain. However he seems to be a strong value in 2008 for the astute General.
3 responses so far ↓
1 Sky // Jan 25, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Figuring out what to expect from a guy like Capuano is the epitome of what fantasy baseball is all about. You have to understand all the underlying skills (like you explained), but then also translate those skills into non-neutral environments. Capuano was the same pitcher in 2006 and 2007 (and provided similar value to the Brewers), but his fantasy value plummeted because of the awful Brewer defense. Could you see that coming? Maybe. Will the 2008 defense be better? Hell yeah. I expect to see Capuano’s and Bush’s ERAs drop by at least 30 points.
Also, note that BABIP (hit rate) affects strand rate. The more baserunners a pitcher allows, the higher the percentage of them that will score, because runs come in bunches. (That’s also why good pitchers tend to be underrated a bit by FIP while crappy pitchers are overrated.) In Capuano’s case, a better defense will result in a lower BABIP, which will also bring up the strand rate.
Good stuff.
2 Nuke // Jan 26, 2008 at 7:25 am
Why are you ignoring the fact that Capuano’s walk rate doubled in 2007 from 2006?
3 Patrick DiCaprio // Jan 26, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Nuke:
It didnt’t double. It went from 1.9 to 3.2. The 1.9 is an outlier, generally he has had walk rates over 3 per 9 innings. So given that it is within his typical performance, one can surmise that fluctuations in hit and strand rate are the prime movers in his fluctuation.
Hope this helps.
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