Despite being, on the surface, a fairly benign trade, it is profoundly interesting.

I have to admit that I absolutely love this deal. It is a real life example of getting a cherry for a lemon, and shows what a brilliant strategist can do even in a mundane transaction.

With Devine we have a guy with obvious gifts and obvious flaws. He has walked just about 9 batters per 9 innings in the bigs in his brief career. Undoubtedly he has been an absolute flop. However he has the stuff to be a big success.

Let’s take a look at his 2007 Major League Equivalency:

65IP 2.27 ERA 3.34 xERA 3.9 BB/9IP 9.9 K/9IP

This is clearly the stuff of a top notch relief pitcher. Even though the walks are a bit high the strikeouts more than make up the difference. Moreover, he gets a ton of groundballs. In 2006 and 2007 his breakdown was 57% GB 15% LD 28% FB.

A pitcher who is 24 with lots of K’s and lots of grounders? I’ll take two please. His overall profile is not too different than some other tremendously talented young pitchers, like Felix Hernandez. Clearly the A’s have nothing to lose here and all to gain.

So what did they give up? Nothing. Kotsay has virtually no value in real baseball or fantasy baseball anymore.

This is a prime example of where GMs go wrong, and fantasy owners should take note. As I have preached here ad nauseum, no decision can be properly analyzed without consideration of the opponent. Every owner thinks, in their own mind, that they are the best and that they know as much as their adversary. But as we all know this is simply false.

Here, looking at the principals involved it is clear what has occurred. Billy Beane has taken advantage of a relatively new GM. Wren comes highly regarded, however the mere fact that Billy Beane wanted Joey Devine should have been enough evidence to Wren that perhaps he should hold on to Devine.

I am sure that Wren did not consider the fact that Beane perhaps knows more than himself. But he would be well served to have considered this fact. Fantasy Generals should take heed of this advice (the true General knows it already). Considering your opponent and his skill is job number one in any decision. Doing so will avoid your being saddled with a lemon when you could have had a cherry. When a smart, tough and knowledgeable owner approaches you for a player on your team you should give that player a second and third look.