Some proof of the view that with the best players, value is not a sufficient criteria for a selection.
There are always some interesting items to be found when comparing the various projections/forecasts generated by the big boys in the fantasy business. I was looking over and comparing PECOTA with Ron Shandler’s BaseballHQ forecasts, and they both have radically different forecasts for Miguel Cabrera. Since this dovetails in with my theory that the whole heuristic of value based on projections is flawed, I thought it was worth a little further exploration.
This year, PECOTA forecasts 28 HR 104 RBI .300/.376/.515.
This does not put him in the top ten hitters, needless to say, and rates him far below Ryan Braun (whom it has as the third highest VORP hitter). As I have written before, when you consider risk it is foolish to draft Braun ahead of Cabrera. Cabrera has a track record and Braun does not, and Braun’s performance last year was far better than one would expect from his minor league numbers. He reminds me in a way of players like Al Kaline, who peaked very early and though went on to a great career never exceeded his age 22 season.
BaseballHQ gives a far rosier picture of Cabrera:
36 HR 131 RBI .342/.417/.609.
In HQ dollar values based on a 5×5 format, Cabrera is the third highest player after A-Rod and Holliday. So who is right?
The point here isn’t who is right or wrong. It doesn’t matter. One can clearly see that if you pursue Cabrera in the first round or early second, you will be getting “value” if you follow Shandler’s projection, but may be losing “value” if you go with PECOTA.
In my view, both are top notch forecasting systems, so it is not a matter of them not knowing what they are doing. But the question of whether Cabrera presents “value” is clearly so subjective that it has no meaning, a la Wittgenstein. With two trustworthy forecasting systems, both of which differ greatly, it should be clear by now that the question of whether he presents “value” makes little sense.
If you love Cabrera this year don’t be deterred by PECOTA. And if you prefer Braun don’t be deterred by BaseballHQ. Your decision should not rely on subjective concepts like “value” if you measure it based on a projection model. If you like Cabrera or Braun, go get him in the first round. You are rolling the dice anyway and he is just as likely to be worth it as not. And don’t let me deter you if you disagree with me on Braun.
3 responses so far ↓
1 Anonymous // Feb 15, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Bit confused why you think Braun way outperformed expectations. His minor league OPS was .947 including a 1.000+ OPS in a partial year in A ball and a 1.119 in a partial year in AAA.
Granted I would never draft Braun over Cabrera this year but I think you are seriously underrating Braun’s potential here.
At this point next year a lot of people will be drafting Braun over Cabrera because they put up relatively even stats. Cabrera will hit for a higher AVG, Braun will get you some SB’s.
Also just a note, PECOTA doesn’t like Cabrera because they think the move to the AL is going to hurt his stats since it is a stronger league. Someone asked about that projection in one of their chats. Don’t know if I buy it or not though.
2 Brandon Heikoop // Feb 16, 2008 at 7:54 am
I’m actually more on board with Braun then Cabrera this year. THT did a study that showed when players move from the NL to the AL they have a decent drop in statistics.
With that in mind, I am avoiding both as I am worried both will be failures at their respected draft positions. I would be happier taking Ichiro at one of those slots then waiting it out for a Zimmerman, Encarnacion or Kouzmanoff or even Glaus. Third base seems incredibly deep this year.
3 digglahhh // Feb 21, 2008 at 11:02 pm
This may be totally incorrect, and I’m sure somebody can make a great counterargument, but…
I basically disregard large, overarching league-wide trends when dealing with truly elite talents. Basically, the players switching the AL from the NL thing doesn’t apply to hitters like Cabrera, IMO.
All Vlad did in the same situation was win an MVP immediately…
Basically, great athletes compete only with themselves. It matters not one iota to Kobe Bryant who is defending him. It’s all Kobe, because no matter who it is they’re not as good as he is. Cabrera is just better than the vast, vast majority of his competition, so it doesn’t really matter who that competition is.
Here’s another weird analogy. Remember back in elementary school when you would take those state-wide reading comprehension tests. Theoretically, the passages got harder as the went along. But, for me, and judging by the writing here for most of you as well, the only one that was at all challenging was the last one. They could have replaced every passage on the test with passages of equal difficulty as the second to last and it wouldn’t have meant a damn thing to the best students (of course I’m assuming this is a raw score, though the actual tests were percentiles). Anyway, that’s my philosophical basis for rejecting the relevance of something like statistical trends regarding league switching.
Now, obviously there are concrete, circumstantial advantages that accompany a specific move - that’s different, and it begs the question why compare everybody when we can just discuss Cabrera individually.
Cabrera moves to a friendlier ballpark and into a better line-up. The best pitcher in baseball just left division he’s going to, to join the division he left. How many pitching studs are there in the AL Central anyway, Sabathia, Liriano?, Carmona?
The Cabrera-specific circumstances should certainly be considered more poignant indicators than any trend that takes into account what Neifi Perez did when joining the Royals from the Rockies…
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