A Primer on Snake Draft Strategy
Every fantasy site has a draft guide and strategies on how best to draft your team, maybe even including a round-by-round analysis of exactly what to do and when. They all claim to be the best, with eye catching catchphrases such as “The Draft Strategy You Can’t Afford to Draft Without!” or “The ULTIMATE Drafting Method to Win Your League!” Yes, I just made those up, but I have yet to read one of these that I truly agree with everything written. So here is a step-by-step tutorial on how I select players in a snake draft.
1. Project at least the number of players that will be drafted, plus several more at each position to act as a replacement level.
2. Create dollar values for every single player using your preferred valuation method. There are a bunch of methods you could probably find for free on message boards or you could find a pay site or book that describes a method.
-How do I decide which method to use? Every method creator will claim theirs is the best, while sometimes pointing out the flaw(s) in competing methods. I use the model from the old Mastersball.com site, which is now fantasybaseball.com, as I found Todd Zola’s method and explanations were clear and logical and provided the most accurate values in my opinion.
-Why should I create dollar values if it’s a snake draft, not an auction? What an excellent question, and probably the first thing on your mind. First off, I never understood how people could come up with rankings without calculating dollar values from the stat lines they project. Unless you have a spreadsheet embedded in your brain, I feel that it is impossible to accurately compare 2 hitters who contribute in different categories. Take these 2 imaginary players for example:
(AB-AVG-HR-RBI-RUN-SB)
Player A: 650-.310-5-50-100-55
Player B: 575-.280-35-110-95-0
To make things simple, let’s further assume these players play the same position. Now I don’t know about you, but without calculating values after projecting the rest of the draftable pool, I have no idea which player is more valuable. It gets even more complicated if the 2 players in question played different positions. So the only way I could think of to compare players is actually creating a spreadsheet to calculate dollar values, whether you’re participating in an auction or not.
3. Sort dollar values by overall value with every position, including pitchers, included to create a master list of players in descending value.
4. Do not come into the draft with a plan of what position to fill in each round or which players to target for when. You have no idea who will be drafted when and who will be available for each of your picks, so you would either a) be wasting your time or b) forcing yourself to follow a specific plan which could cause you to miss out on players who have dropped too far.
5. Draft time (can you feel the excitement?!) For each pick, you should first look at the highest valued player on your sheet. If you used a good valuation method, position scarcity and category scarcity should already be incorporated into your values. For many picks, you will simply be selecting this top valued player.
B) Next, look down your list to see how many other players who play the same position are within a couple of dollars of the top valued player. This is going to come into play a lot more after the first couple of rounds as players tend to be valued more closely.
C) If you see a ton of players playing the same position and within a couple of dollars of the top player available, skip down to the next highest valued player at a different position. Repeat step B until you find a player at a position where there is a drop-off to the 2nd highest valued player available at that position. Once you find that player with the drop-off, draft away.
**You need to make a judgment call on how many positions to skip in search of a drop-off. Remember that you don’t want to leave too much value on the table by drafting a $15 player when a $27 player is still available. You also need to decide when to draft pitchers, because since there are so many of them, there will never be a big drop-off to the next one except maybe at the beginning when the top 5 starters or so are still available. Personally, I always draft pitchers late, being one of the last teams to draft my 1st starter.
-So what exactly is the purpose of this draft method? The primary purpose is simply to maximize value. If you were to project the standings of your league after the draft using the projections from your dollar values, I would guess there is a high correlation between overall team dollar value and place in the standings. Obviously it won’t be perfect since you still need to be somewhat balanced. And I know projected standings mean little come the end of the season, but it’s a good indicator of how your draft went.
What this method does is force you to draft the $22 catcher instead of the $26 1st Baseman, because assuming you followed the method correctly, there is a good chance there will still be a low $20 1st Baseman still available when you pick again. If the next best catcher is $10, you just drafted yourself a $22 catcher and $22 1st Baseman instead of a $26 1st Baseman and $10 catcher (assuming you even draft him). I know I’m leaving out the fact you could draft other positions with your next pick after the $26 1st Baseman, but at some point you’re either going to end up reaching for a player at a scarce position or ending up with a $1 player there.
D) The above strategy basically ends when you get to the last couple of rounds, especially when drafting your bench. At this point, you’ll be staring at a bunch of players worth $5 or less, many of which bear names such as “Scott Hatteberg” or “Kevin Millar”. Unless you’re in a deep mixed league (like 20 teams) or an “only” league, you obviously don’t want these guys. So throw out the rules, and start drafting the young guys with upside, especially pitchers. I always load up on pitchers with good skills at the end hoping to land a breakout or 2.
E) Of course, taking into consideration what positions you filled and your categorical needs is of paramount importance, and obviously trumps the above steps when your target plays a position you have already filled.
F) Another good idea is to monitor the positional needs of the teams drafting after your current pick. If every team that drafts after the next pick you make already has its catcher(s), there’s no reason to grab a catcher with that pick, since he’ll assuredly still be there when the draft snakes back to you.
Well that about covers exactly how I go about putting together my fantasy squad in a snake draft. I’m sure many of you are shaking your head in disagreement, but hopefully a majority understands the logic behind the strategy and is able to incorporate it into your next draft. It was difficult to explain some of the ideas in words, so I encourage you to ask questions to clarify what you are confused about. Happy drafting!
Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.
8 responses so far ↓
1 willclarkismyhero // Feb 4, 2008 at 5:01 pm
Thanks for the tip. This is similar to the strategy I’ve had pretty good success with, the difference being that I don’t calculate dollar values. I just find an overall ranking that I like and go with it, while making a few tweaks along the way.
Could you comment on how this strategy might be a little different in a head to head league, especially with respect to waiting on pitchers? I always feel like you need to have 1 or 2 stud starters in a weekly head to head league. Thanks.
2 Mike Podhorzer // Feb 4, 2008 at 7:58 pm
To tell you the truth, i’ve only played in a H2H league once and hated it because of all the luck involved in weekly matchups, so i never joined one again!
However, i would think it depends on your scoring system- is it a points league or H2H roto where whoever wins the most cats gets a win, or do you get a win for every cat you beat your opponent in?
If it’s a H2H roto where you either end up 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1, dumping a cat is much easier. You could easily dump steals and focus on loading up on the rest of the hitting cats to almost guarantee 4 wins right there. Then you only need 2 pitching cat. wins for an overall win for the week.
Hope this helps. Email me if you have any further questions. Oh yeah, and Will Clark was one of my fav players.
3 Patrick DiCaprio // Feb 4, 2008 at 8:38 pm
Hey guys, interesting discussion. FWIW I have played in a few H2H leagues. In my experience there is no difference in terms of draft preparation with one main exception. That is you must rate players based on the specific point totals for your league. This will require a subscription to a premium site in most cases, though there probably are a few free ones out there. You get what you pay for.
As far as the stud starter, it is still my preferred strategy to wait regardless of the two-start pitcher scenario. Aside from Johan there arent many that are appreciably better than the rest, and if you read my discussion on projections (check out this weeks roto times article tomorrow), you will see that relying on projections for pitchers other than at the top of the auction pyramid is unreliable. A reliable hitter is still more valuable; you must consider not the absolute value but the marginal value.
4 Mike Podhorzer // Feb 4, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Patrick, that reminds me. If indeed the above commenter’s league is a points league, which usually is H2H, my draft strategy above needs to basically be ignored. It is A LOT easier to rank players in a points league. In fact, I think i will make that the topic of my next post.
5 willclarkismyhero // Feb 4, 2008 at 9:30 pm
The league I’m in is the kind where a win in a category goes towards your overall season record, so winning the week is important, but a 10-2 win is better than a 7-6 win (we play 16 total categories. I’ve found that haveing 1 or 2 reliable pitchers makes a big difference in this style of play. Iknow, it’s not for everyone, but we’ve had the league for a long time and can’t bring ourselves to change it.
As far as the playoff frustration, I like it because even if you have the best team coming into the playoffs, you’re not guaranteed a leauge championship. While that sucks for the team with the best record, it’s great for everyone else in the playoffs (just ask the NY football Giants).
Thanks again for the help and keep up the good work, guys.
6 redsoxtalk // Feb 12, 2008 at 6:54 pm
Hey, thanks for the write-up. I always use a 2-page cheat sheet with my positional rankings so I can easily see who’s left at each position. Sometimes I include ADP so I know roughly where I can expect them to go.
I’m not sure I totally agree with point 4, as I check ADP results and use that to forecast who might be available when. Of course, you’re right in that every draft is different, and one screwy player can turn the draft on its head by starting a run on catchers, closers, whatever. But I do have certain “favorites” this year who I am targeting, especially later in the draft.
As for point F, I usually find myself busy enough with my stuff to really be aware of other teams much. I find it easier to remember, for example, that 7 catchers are gone already, so there are 5 left that will be taken.
You could include a spreadsheet snapshot to illustrate what you write about, that might make it easier for people to get the concept.
7 Mike Podhorzer // Feb 13, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Hey redsox, thanks for the comment. I agree ADP is hugely important. Knowing when you could wait so you get better value is key.
The real point of 4 was basically let the draft dictate who you take. If someone falls to you that should have gone 2 rounds earlier, than you should draft him. When you mention favorites, yes, there are guys i’m sure i project better than others. But i will still wait to draft them when they end up at the top of my rankings of available players, and the ADP shows i might miss out if i don’t draft the player now.
Point F is tough, usually comes into play if you are close to last to draft a position.
8 digglahhh // Feb 21, 2008 at 9:33 pm
New to this site, just saw this.
As a serious fantasy player, I played my first ever H2H league last year at the request of some of my less serious fantasy playing friends. I will not be playing another one.
Aside from the obvious schedule issues, there are other more subtle statistical quirks that result from breaking the season down into so many small sample sizes.
One that was alluded to is that it is acceptable, and at some points advantageous to punt categories. You could forfeit steals and win power categories all the time.
You can do weird things with you pitching staff too. You could forfeit wins, load up on closers and middle relievers and win all the rate stats regularly. Compose your staff of two high quality K-pitching studs, and high K/9 closers and elite set-up men. You’ll still win Ks at decent rate, especially during two start weeks. I’m not saying that is the best strategy, you want to go into the draft trying to field a team that can compete in every category. But, it’s easier to make the proverbial lemons out of lemonade in H2H.
In a roto league, you basically can’t win while pulling even a single “1″ in a category. H2H, you can build a team that would guarantee you a “1″ in a roto category and still dominate the league.
Another quirk of the sample size happens in the SB department. Weekly totals are small, and SBs aren’t dispersed at regular intervals (not that any stat accumulation is, but it’s more egregious here). 30SB guys who are very important in roto leagues, have surprising little influence on H2H leagues. Often you’ll get more than you need and win like 8-3, and at the same time, you can have valuable speed guys who go a week without swiping a bag.
At one point, I used the team logs to recalculate the standings of my H2H league under a Roto rubric, it was pretty shocking.
H2H formats seem to minimize the advantage knowledgeable GMs have over their less diligent counterparts.
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