A look at over/undervalued players at each position.

Up next in our run through of the Feb 23rd ADP report from Mock Draft Central is 1st Base. If you missed it, my catcher analysis can be found here. Surprisingly, I didn’t find many glaring “mistakes” at the position. However, I did find 2, and also a couple of players who were not part of the top 250 that you should keep an eye on.

Overvalued

Justin Morneau (34th overall, 7th amongst 1B)- It seems that Morneau is being overrated for the 2nd year in a row. I’m not sure I have a major problem with his rank within the position, but instead where he’s being drafted overall. I won’t quote all the numbers as this is a guy we’re all familiar with, especially his mysterious awful 2nd half. And no, he’s not on this list because of that 2nd half.

Basically, as has also been noted by the many “experts” who I truly consider experts, the big boppers who hit the HRs and accumulate the RBIs, but provide no speed, and in Morneau’s case, a batting average that won’t even help your team (but won’t hurt), are consistently overvalued. I believe people forget that you need to be drafting production relative to the player’s position.

In the shallow leagues this report is using for its ADP, you can find a 1B who hits .270 with 20-25 HRs pretty easily on the waiver wire. In fact, one such example is Mike Jacobs, who is being drafted outside the top 250. Sure, he’s not as good as Morneau, but considering how close a free agent can come, there is no reason to waste a 34th overall pick on Morneau. Fans love the long ball, and apparently fantasy owners can’t get enough of it either. But one needs to take into account categorical scarcity and positional scarcity when determining values and your next draft selection, both of which do not help Morneau’s value.

Undervalued

Joey Votto (246, 22)- I was very surprised to see Votto all the way down at 246 on this new report. Last week, Dusty Baker made a shocking (for him) announcement that seemed to indicate he is open to starting Votto over the 67-year old Scott Hatteberg. I figured that in previous drafts, Votto’s ADP was held down by the risk of Hatteberg taking away ABs, but with this statement from Baker, I expected his ADP to shoot up, which apparently wasn’t the case. As a result, he finds himself listed here.

Votto doesn’t have a ton of power, but with a full season of ABs, should be able to swat 20-25 bombs, and with a decent contact rate, hit around .280. However the intrigue of Votto comes from his stolen base potential. In 2007, he stole 17 bases with a 63% success rate (not very good, but not bad enough to stop running altogether), after recording 24 steals in 2006, with a much better 77% success rate. If he could go 20-10, while hitting around .280, and with upside to perform even better, he’s an absolute steal at 246th overall.

Outside the Top 250

Conor Jackson- A great contact rate, a BB/K ratio over 1, solid LD% and more FBs than GBs (as a precursor to more power) + outside the top 250 = potential bargain. With the departure of Tony Clark, only the threat of Chad Tracy playing some 1st Base stands in the way of guaranteed full-time ABs for Jackson. Most of his ABs last year came in the cleanup slot, so if he’s there again (and with an .833 ‘07 OPS, there’s no reason for him not to be), we could see a .290 AVG, 20 HRs, 90 RBIs and 80 Runs. That potential, and the possibility for even better, means he’s a much better choice than a player like Kevin Youkilis who provides similar stats without the upside, but is going 174th overall.

Lyle Overbay- Remember him? After a bust of a 2007 season that included breaking his hand, limiting him to only 425 ABs, fantasy owners have all but written him off. However, before the injury he posted a career high Power Index and xBA, and lest we forget he hit .312 with 22 HRs and 92 RBIs in ‘06. Health permitting, he still has the skills to reach that level again.

Richie Sexson- Before you vomit on your keyboard, remember (as hard as it is) that this is a player who was a consistent 35+ HR guy with over 100 RBIs. His ‘07 batting average was dragged down by a ridiculously unlucky 22% hit rate, and while the power dropped off as well, most of it could be chalked up to various nagging injuries. Yes, he’s 33 and his power is clearly deteriorating (Power Index has dropped for 3 straight years), but his other skills remained intact and so his ‘07 isn’t a true indicator of his current talent. This season he should be able to post an average closer to his career mark of .263, as his xBA last year was only a little worse than previous years. His power should rebound somewhat, as he hit 15 HRs in the 1st half, but only 6 in the 2nd, lending credence to the idea that injuries derailed him in that 2nd half.

Well that does it for the 1st Base crop. Tune in next time for the scoop on 2nd Basemen.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.