A look at over/undervalued players at each position.

Next up in our stroll through MDC’s top 250 ADP report as of Feb. 23 is 2nd Base. There are a bunch of players worth mentioning so I will try to keep my comments brief and to the point. Here we go…

Overvalued

BJ Upton (23rd overall, 3rd amongst 2B)- I can’t add much else that hasn’t already been mentioned by other experts/bloggers, so I’ll just reiterate the most important points. A .399 BABIP means that average is coming way down. A still excellent .340 BABIP would have produced only a .263 average, a far cry from the .300he posted. Even taking into account his awesome power/speed combo, it will be almost impossible to repeat the BABIP and average unless he drastically cuts down on his K’s, which of course is possible given his age and history. And last, where did that power come from? Nothing in his history suggested this was possible already, so you’ll likely be disappointed if you expect higher power numbers, given more ABs.

Dan Uggla (102, 7)- No speed, huge drop in contact rate leading to a batting average that will hurt you, and loss of Miguel Cabrera means he’s going too early at 102. Very similar production could be had 110 picks later. Keep reading to find out who I’m talking about.

Undervalued

Aaron Hill (188, 15)- Drop in contact rate is concerning, but the huge power spike and solid LD% means he’s a good bet to post another .290 average. Is this power for real? Well his doubles rose from 28 to 47, in only 62 extra ABs, and he maintained the power through both halves. The Blue Jays have a solid lineup, especially if Wells rebounds, so his RBI and RUN totals should be above average at the position. Only thing lacking is speed, but he’ll still chip in about 5. The Baseball Forecaster even sees more upside with 25 HRs and a .300+ BA possible. At 188, could be a steal.

Ty Wigginton (212, 17)- As boring as they come, which is exactly why you could match Dan Uggla production, or even better, for 110 picks cheaper. Minute Maid Park has increased RHB HRs by 19% the last 3 years, compared to Tropicana Field’s negative effect on RHB HRs of 3%. Wigginton should post a better average than Uggla, while the rest of the numbers should be very similar. In addition, he also qualifies at 3B, and in some leagues 1B (18 games played there), which should provide great flexibility if needed, even though he’s most valuable at 2B.

Outside the Top 250

Mark Ellis- Jacked up his flyball rate to 50%, allowing him to hit a career high 19 HRs. Will contribute a little in every category with good power for a 2B, even if the FB rate regresses a little. Not much upside, but a decent choice in a deeper mixed or AL-Only league if your opponents don’t believe in the power spike or just forget about him.

Asdrubal Cabrera- I was surprised not to see him in the top 250 as I figured he’d be a popular sleeper pick. Stole 25 bases in the minors last year, but mysteriously didn’t even make an attempt in 186 plate appearances with the Indians. He could end up hitting 2nd for a very good Indians lineup, and if so, could pretty much match Orlando Cabrera’s stats for a fraction of the cost.

Luis Castillo- Not much to say here, as another unsexy pick, but a consistent .300 hitter, will score runs in a good Mets lineup, and still steals 20 bases a year. No power obviously, but a .300 hitter who can steal 20 at 2B needs to be owned.

Freddy Sanchez- Memories of his .344 2006 have all but faded. His power spiked dramatically in the 2nd half, as he posted the highest PX of his career of 121, and increased his FB rate, allowing him to hit 10 HRs. If he is able to hold onto most or all of his power gains, he could hit 15 HRs with solid RBI and RUN totals, although his average might dip into the .280’s or .290’s with more fly balls.

Well that wraps up the tour of the second sackers. I know I mentioned at the beginning that I’d try to keep my comments brief, but apparently the words just keep flowing off my keyboard and I can’t stop myself. Come back soon as we check in on the shortstops next.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.