Looking in greater detail at the draft day endgame. However, I did amend my apparent misunderstanding of my discussion with Lenny Melnick. Oops….

In my latest Fanball Owner’s Edge column I address in greater detail my view on the draft day endgame. Here are some of my thoughts:

1. The later rounds usually reflect a constant pursuit of “value” on the basis that this is where you can make or break your team with that one late round player that far out produces his expectation. This is undoubtedly true in theory. The sad fact is that the projections and values simply do not matter in the least and no matter how astute you are and no matter what criteria you use you are essentially at the whim of fortune.

2. When making the end game selections we must recognize that one simply cannot make fine distinctions based on numbers that are inherently unreliable, especially at the end of the draft when the margin for error is inordinately excessive.

That is not to say that there is no selection criterion that is valuable, far from it. It is only to say that projections or forecast dollar values or point totals should not be the main or sole criteria. However, though there are criteria that are more valuable than others when making these selections, it is also true that success is akin to a spin on a roulette wheel no matter what criteria one chooses.

For example, let’s say you are choosing between Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, both of whom I discussed previously. If you feel that you are certain which one will perform better than the other then you are far more prescient than most (myself included).

3. I think that there is no criterion that trumps excellent judgment, and the only way to success is to hone one’s judgment through experience, trial and error and analysis of one’s mistakes. The expert player will make better selections based simply on subjective criteria and judgment, and not on any truly objective criteria.

With regard to the below it turns out that I was wrong! Lenny does, in fact, use his own dollar value projections that he makes himself. Also, I did want to clarify that Lenny does use stats projections also, which maybe wasn’t clear below. So you can ignore the part about not using dollar value projections. Some days you are the bug and some you are the windshield….
I had a discussion with Lenny Melnick, the Godfather of fantasy baseball, on this topic and to my surprise he told me that he does not even believe in traditional rankings. He merely projects the players himself, and then starts with the stats he thinks are needed to win each category and compiles them in the draft. He simply accumulates as many of his stats as possible in every round.

The genius is in the simplicity of this plan. Instead of getting bogged down in minutiae and metrics, he simply accumulates stats.

There are far better ways to spend one’s draft preparation time than seeking out more exact or more accurate projections, or trying to make a draft ranking list that attempts to quantify in minute detail the fine distinctions between the end round players. Personally, I prefer to imagine myself in a pillow fight with the female stars of Lost, since at least it puts me in a good frame of mind. But when it comes down to these late round picks, it is sad to say that in many ways it just doesn’t matter.