Following up on the continuing series of PECOTA breakouts, here are the pitchers.

With pitchers the top PECOTA breakouts are generally pitchers who were absolutely shellacked in the previous year. However, one man’s shellackee is another man’s gold. Case in point is number one on the list.

How should the Fantasy General use this breakout information? It requires understanding that PECOTA will look for breakouts among pitchers who were terrible. Some of these are legitimately terrible, but some have skills hidden by bad luck that led to their terrible numbers. Finding these hidden skills is the mark of true wisdom.

As with most fantasy baseball decisions, the expert player does not rely on one statistic or criteria; he melds many approaches to come to a better judgment than his competitors. Using PECOTA in conjunction with analysis of underlying skills is the path to victory on the fantasy pitcher battlefield, at least in deeper league but even in mixed leagues where players superficially look similar but in fact may be very different.

J.P. Howell-Last year was in many ways a lost year for him. He was one of my “go get him” guys in my high stakes league last year, meaning that regardless of projections I was going to acquire him. He didn’t exactly justify my sentiments. However, he is now what he has always been in the majors; a very skilled pitcher in search of a better defense. Since he now should get it he may be a good value. And yes, I am officially recommending a pitcher who had a 7.50 ERA last year.

Howell had an atrocious 39% hit rate last year, which is a perfect confluence of bad luck and terrible defense. That should normalize. PECOTA has him with a 55% breakout rate, which is no surprise given how bad he was last year. Mixed leaguers should merely monitor his progress, but AL only players should look closely at him.

James Hoey-Another example of poor performance belied by strong skills. Hoey, like Howell, is a hidden gem. Given the state of flux in Baltimore many will flock to Sherrill, driving up his price. And he may succeed. However the astute general will look to a guy like Hoey. Yes that is two pitchers in a row I am recommending with over 7.00 ERAs. His combination of strikeout ability and control shown in the minors trumps his short term failure in the majors for the bargain hunter. He has a 49% PECOTA breakout chance.

Dallas Braden-Sensing a pattern? Coming in at 48%, his skill set clearly shows that he is a major league quality pitcher, and an ERA in the low fours is not out of the question. PECOTA gives him a 4.64 projection, and BaseballHQ gives him a 4.34 ERA but a 4.02 xERA. For an undoubted $1 price tag that is very juicy, and if he gets 150 IP he will be a huge bargain. Well, at least he didnt have an ERA over seven, coming in at 6.72.

Jimmy Gobble-Coming in at 47%, Gobble is a lesson in not giving up on a failed prospect too quickly. Once highly touted in KC, (and I speak from experience, having drafted him in 2003 and long since given up on him) he has taken a few years to develop. With a 9.4 K rate and a 3-1 K/BB ratio it appears he has arrived in the bullpen, at a minimum. The KC staff is in such flux that we don’t know what role he will have at the end of the year. Anything from closer to starter is possible. No matter what, he has skills and for another under $5 price tag what is not to like?

Jeremy Bonderman-For mixed leaguers here is a player for you. PECOTA gives him a 44% breakout rate. Possible elbow problems dictate caution. But if healthy he should be a top target. His xERA of 4.17 last year belies his actual 5.01 ERA. One issue with Bonderman appears to be a Dave Bush-like problem with runners on base and pitching out of the stretch. Bonderman is routinely below average in strand rate, a typical indicator of stretch problems. That aside he was also plagued by hit rate problems last year, which should normalize.

Next up will be the pitchers to avoid. There will be some very interesting names on the list, and the list may indicate some potential closer flux.