Here are some interesting projected “collapse” pitchers from PECOTA.

Ian Kennedy-Kennedy’s somewhat surprising 2007 (but short) debut was a bit of a mirage, per PECOTA. Kennedy comes in with a 67% chance of collapse (again it must be remembered that this is a specifically defined term in PECOTA, not a general “collapse”). PECOTA projects him with a 9-7 record and a 4.24 ERA. This would be a very solid performance, and even may be a bit optimistic in my opinion. BaseballHQ is even more sanguine, giving him a 4.14 ERA. I will have to disagree with both for now. Don’t go nuts in auctions, and in drafts he is probably waiver bait. It is very tough to see a rookie with average stuff having a low 4s ERA.

Trevor Hoffman-The grand old man is starting to show some fraying. PECOTA gives him a 67% chance of collapse, and only a 10% chance of improving off of 2007. His skills have been declining for a few years; his K rate has dropped from 8.8 in 2004 to 6.9 in 2007, BB rate has gone from 1.3 to 2.4 and his xERA has ballooned from 3.07 to 4.44.

Even more disconcerting for Hoffman owners is his fly ball rate. Last year it was a career high 52%, and yet he only allowed 2 home runs. This is certainly going to correct this season. Every one of these indicators is serious cause for concern, but given his age and the overall trend, it is possible that his closing days are numbered.

The baseball world may be surprised if he falls out of the role this year, but the astute general will not. Am I predicting it? Not quite; Petco can perhaps hide his flaws for one more season. Will I be surprised? No.

Chad Billingsley-I sure hope they are wrong about him, since he is one of my best keepers in one of my high stakes leagues. He comes in with a 59% chance of collapse and only a 2% chance of a breakout. His overall projection though is not bad, 8-8 3.96 ERA.

I have to admit being far more optimistic; and PECOTA is known for being on the low side for most pitchers (which is why Kennedy’s projection surprises me a bit). I see Billingsley as a guy who could be a down ballot Cy Young contender with a bit of improvement in control. His K rate was a very solid 8.6 and he vastly improved his control last year. His ERA of 3.31 was far lower than his xERA of 4.29 but with improving skills and control this may not present a problem.

Why? Because looking at his overall season is not as enlightening as his splits. In his last seven starts (and he is still only 23 so learning the league is an issue) he posted a 9.1 K rate and a 3.1 BB rate,with a 2.68 ERA. Anything close to this for a full season and he will be a down ballot Cy Young candidate. Let’s hope. I am as optimistic about Billingsley as any young pitcher in the NL.

Manny Corpas-Corpas shows up with a 64% chance of collapse. This is not surprising; he had a somewhat lucky 2007 campaign, featuring a 26% hit rate and an 84% strand rate. Regression here in both categories is almost assured. His K rate is not elite for a closer, but he does get tons of groundballs, somewhat offsetting his K rate. With Brian Fuentes back it is possible that any sign of regression should result in him losing his job.

Brandon Lyon-Being named the closer recently has shot up his value. Don’t go giving him 40 saves just yet. PECOTA is projecting a 4.56 ERA and a 56% chance of collapse; numbers that will definitely make him lose his job. Pena and Qualls are more than capable, and even Juan Cruz could probably make do.

With a 4.9 K rate and a 2.7 BB rate, there is no way Lyon should hold this job all year. It is possible he could have some resurgence of skill, but there is no reason to predict it. Moreover, he had a 4.94 xERA last year versus an actual ERA of 2.68 (!) and a base performance value far below what is expected of a successful closer. Sell, sell, sell and now.