In a recent FSTA auction Ron Shandler drafted Miguel Cabrera with the first overall pick. Here are my thoughts.

Ron Shandler of BaseballHQ fame, in his column on the site, gave us the following nugget:

And, as for Miguel Cabrera with the first selection in Round 1, I’ll leave that for you to debate. (The next four picks were Santana, A-Rod, Pujols and Wright.)

Before making my comments, I wanted to mention a theory that I mentioned previously.

One possible source of profit (in life as well as in fantasy baseball) is the “learned minority” theory, which I first encountered when I was a horseplayer. Roughly speaking, if you knew that someone was an expert and among experts they were a singular minority and you also knew they had good reason for their pick (because you knew their methodology) then you had valuable information. Because of the nature of pari-mutuel wagering, such picks represented a mathematical value.

The principle of the “learned minority” can be applied to almost any endeavor; it is yet another cog in the decision making process.

Shandler is a definite “learned minority” when it comes to this number one choice. Here is what I think was going on in his head with the pick:

1. A-Rod is very “unreliable.” A-Rod unquestionably has a vacillation in his overall performance indicators. His power, home run rates and expected batting averages all follow and up and down type pattern. With the number one pick you need the most reliable production possible. BaseballHQ does have a “reliability” score, which reflects on a scale of 1-100 the reliability of the forecast. Cabrera is far higher.

2. Cabrera is his number two overall offensive player (at least as of today). Based on dollar values, Cabrera comes out second after A-Rod, but only $1 behind for 2008. Holliday is third.

3. A third baseman must be taken in the first round. Conventional wisdom is that there are lots available, but after the big four there is a steep drop off to Atkins and Chipper and then a steeper drop off. Since no big four 3B will be available, it comes down to A-Rod or Cabrera. I am ignoring Wright because he isn’t a top four player in the projections. Regardless of what one thinks about that projection, it is a fact.

With these three facts it almost seems self evident. He nabs the second best player on the board, and gives us $1 profit in exchange for much higher reliability.

In one of my very first articles I defined what specific characteristics a true “expert” possesses. I am sure Ron will dispute the term, but based on my criteria, especially “independence”, it is clear that this pick is the pick on a true expert and a learned minority. Use this analysis as you see fit. For what it’s worth, I drafted Miguel with the seventh overall pick in the expert Mock draft this Sunday.