David Chase at Brock for Broglio did some interesting and essential work with PrOPS.
Our friends at Brock for Broglio did some research that I found to be quite eye opening. Here is a link to the article. A similar article exists with “lucky” hitters.
Essentially the thesis of the article is that these are hitters that are likely to improve in 2008, since their projected OPS was higher than their actual OPS. Assuming that regression to the mean is to be expected with OPS as is the case with BA and ERA, this is very interesting stuff. More importantly, it can be quite valuable.
For example, in the case of Carlos Pena one would be hard pressed to justify any increase in 2008 from 2007. The overwhelming weight of the conventional wisdom is that Pena will regress. Yet, based on PrOPS he should at least repeat 2008 if not improve slightly! This is tremendously valuable insight.
I can envision this being correct, despite what conventional wisdom advises. Pena had a PX of 238 and an xBA of .294. He hits plenty of flyballs, and though he was lucky with his HR/F ratio, clearly his 2007 performance was no fluke. With PrOPS to buttress his believers he could be a good value.
On the downside of the ledger, one player I am sour on is Curtis Granderson. In fact I will be discussing him in this Sunday’s radio show so tune in! My feelings on him are apparently justified by PrOPS. Granderson had an OPS over .900 last year but according to PrOPS it should have been under .800.
This is some valuable research and should be reviewed in great detail.
4 responses so far ↓
1 Mike Podhorzer // Feb 22, 2008 at 7:45 pm
I remember reading the original PrOPS article, and went to the link again to refresh my memory, but there was no actual formula given. Did I just miss the formula or has it not been shared?
2 Sky // Feb 22, 2008 at 10:42 pm
JC hasn’t made the formula public. Basically it’s just a regression equation with GB/LD/FB%, BB%, and K%. Like DIPS for pitchers but accounting for the fact that hitters can control BABIP and HR/FB. One thing to look out for with PrOPS is the effect of ballparks and speed on BABIP.
3 digglahhh // Feb 23, 2008 at 12:50 am
This is a topic I’d like to see some extended discussion on. Carlos Pena deserves a pretty rigorous investigation.
Some breakouts are seen as legit and some as flukish by the media. These conclusions are normally based on preconceived notions and plain old empty carbs of hype. The “legit” breakouts always project to be overvalued in the following year, Granderson being a prime example. Jermaine Dye the previous year. The “flukish” breaker-outers have the potential to provide great value if their breakout was legit.
Of course, there are more substantive ways to determine the legitimacy of a season that exceeded expectations than a subjective mainstream hype machine.
Thinking that Pena might offer something here, I took a cursory look at him via FanGraphs, and everything seemed surprisingly good.
Still, cognitive dissonance is like that horribly annoying song that you can’t get out of your head. The wealth of reliable corner options doesn’t make it any easier.
Would you be comfortable taking the risk (snake draft) with say, Konerko still on the board?
4 Patrick DiCaprio // Feb 23, 2008 at 12:54 am
i will try to do something in depth on it. i did something last year on tacit communication on minor leaguers and I think similar comments apply.
As for Pena vs. Konerko I would have no problem at all with Pena. It is my opinion that he isnta fluke and I am willing to go with it.
Feel free to email me and thanks for reading.
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