Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA is hot off the presses. There are some interesting breakout candidates.

For those who are not familiar with PECOTA it is a unique methodology for creating projections, and I am a big fan of PECOTA. Essentially the system uses comparable players to generate forecasts, and given that it is a unique methodology it has great value since it will occasionally be very different from the standard projection models, giving its users a decided edge.

One of the great features is the “breakout,” “improve” and “collapse” figures, which I discussed in an earlier article here.

One of the first things I do when I get the PECOTA spreadsheet is look at breakout and collapse candidates. Here are some of the interesting “breakout” candidates, where a “breakout” is the chance of an increase of 20% in their base performance:

Akinori Iwamura-This is a name that is of particular interest to me since he is one of my keepers in one of my high stakes leagues. I almost think there has to be an error with the figures, which give him a 94% chance of a breakout and a 95% chance of improving. I have never seen figures this high, so I sure hope that they are correct. I was on the fence about him but if this is even close to accurate he could be a great bargain. He won’t be a star, but grinding out profit from lower tier players is what separates the wheat from the chaff in deeper leagues.

Cameron Maybin-I almost didn’t include him but decided to only to make a point about these statistics. Maybin has a 60% breakout and a 91% improve.
Since the numbers are generated from last year’s performance, which was terrible in the majors, he almost has to do better. Improving off of last years performance still doesn’t make him a major leaguer. In my view he is nowhere near ready to be a starter in 2008.

Justin Upton- On the other hand most people do not think Upton is ready for a full time gig, but I disagree. He had a 7% BB rate and a 75% contact rate, which are both marginal but certainly not indicative of a player who is overmatched. His MLE equated to a 0.58 BB/K ratio, which is again not indicative of an overmatched player. Don’t believe the talk that he isn’t ready. Will he be a star this year? Probably not, but he will be at least average or slightly below average and there will be many worse guys rostered. The BP figures have him at a 56%breakout and a 76% improve.

Lastings Milledge-Here is another player that I love and expect big things from in the short term. He has a 48% chance of a breakout and a 76% chance of improving. There is no reason to think he won’t be at least an average player right now and something like .285/.360/.500 is not out of the question.

Daric Barton-Can he hold an everyday job, and hold off Dan Johnson? PECOTA thinks he can if he gets the chance. He has a 44% breakout and a 73% improve, with projections of 13 HR 73 RBI and .273/.360/.425. This would likely be enough to hold a job and would be a creditable full season performance. Personally I am less sanguine, and believe that Johnson will win out but if you like Barton don’t let me talk you out of him.

Dioner Navarro-Another name that is close to me since he is on my high stakes team, Navarro is a very interesting guy. An absolute disaster in the first half, he showed solid promise in the second half and is still very young. If you subscribe to the 25+2 theory (players age 25 with two years or more of ML experience are breakout candidates) he fits the bill. PECOTA agrees, with a 33% breakout and 54% improve. He makes good contact and any increase in power could net him 15-20 homers.

PECOTA is a great toy to play with and just sorting through the various metrics can be an illuminating exercise. We will take a look at some of the collapse figures in my next article.