Some more fun with PECOTA.

In my prior article on PECOTA, I addressed offensive breakout candidates. Now, here are some players that are slated for “collapse,” per PECOTA:

Cristian Guzman-This should come as no surprise since he was, roughly speaking, the worst regular in baseball history during his career. Last year I wrote about the amazing fact that he wasn’t completely worthless, and I can simply say now that if you are considering owning him you should be banned from fantasy baseball for life or should at least be sentenced to play in my leagues. He has the highest “collapse” percentage of any regular in baseball, with a 62% chance.

Ichiro Suzuki-He can’t keep it up forever, and though he may be my favorite player in baseball I am constrained to report on his collapse chance. PECOTA pegs him with a 58% chance of collapse. Even more alarming is that PECOTA has him with 19 SB and only a .304 average. Choosing early round picks is largely about risk, and you may need to pass by him since he is far more likely to go early than to be drafted or auctioned where he likely deserves. Reading his PECOTA depresses me.

Orlando Cabrera-Here is a player about whom I am confident of a collapse. Cabrera comes in with a 51% chance of collapse according to PECOTA. This figure seems to me to be partly confirmed by comparing his xBA with actual BA last year. He had a .301 BA but a mere .258 xBA. I would be willing to wager that he will be far closer to .258 than to .301. Orlando, if you are reading this I am truly sorry. The Fantasy Generals must say nay.

Edgar Renteria-Edgar checks in with a 50% chance of collapse and a lukewarm projection that does not have him reaching double digits in steals or homers. PECOTA pegs him a 7 HR 8 SB and a .279 average. As with Cabrera, analysis of his BA and xBA yields a similar conclusion. His lofty average last year was not supported by his skills performance. His BA was almost 50 points higher than his xBA of .286. However, BaseballHQ is far more sanguine about his 2008, projecting a .301 batting average and a $21 forecast. I am not certain what to make here, but can only advise caution and restraint.

Michael Young-Generally a model of BA consistency and a line drive machine, PECOTA is not impressed for 2008, giving him a 48% chance of collapse and a .289-11-69-10 PECOTA projection. 2007 saw the highest disparity of his career between xBA and BA with a .284 xBA and a .315 BA. He typically exceeds his xBA though, generally because he hits so many line drives and line drives are far more likely than other batted balls to fall for hits. I must note that power and xBA are in free fall, and at some point one must consider that his BA will follow suit. His contact rate and OPS were also at their lowest since 2003. Lots of negative trends here.

Next up I will take a look at pitchers.