Our friends at Roto Professor are running a series of “quick hit” articles that are must reads. Here are my comments on two of them.

At Roto Professor they are running a series of “quick hit” articles. Essentially they are one or two paragraph summaries of certain intriguing players. They are well thought out, well written and well worth a look.

I don’t, of course, agree with all of the opinions in those articles! Their analysis of Chad Billingsley was spot on in my view. If anything their projection for Billingsley may be a bit conservative, however they make a very good point about the Dodgers perhaps limiting his innings and deflating his value.

One where we disagree is Jeremy Bonderman. Injury issues aside (and that is a big aside of course) I think he is ready to bloom.

One problem with Bonderman is that his skills generally are far better than his stats would lead one to believe. As I have mentioned before, Bonderman may have a problem working from the stretch, since he routinely has below average strand rates. This is a possible cause of skills not resulting in the stats he “deserves.”

It should be noted that his expected ERA has been far better than his actual ERA in every year of his career. Last year the difference reached its apex, with a 5.01 ERA but a 4.17 xERA. 2007 also represented his best BB/9 IP rate, at 2.5. This lends further credence to the theory that he can’t pitch well from the stretch, a la Dave Bush.

It is not hard to envision some rapid ascension this year. Perhaps it is wishful thinking, but I have to believe that at some point his skills will result in excellent stats. It may be a bit of a gamble to say this is the year, but given that the gap in xERA and ERA reached its pinnacle in 2007, there is some reason to think it will rebound in 2008.

His second half last year was affected in large part by luck. His xERA in the second half was 4.11 but he was bedeviled by a 34% hit rate and a 63% strand rate, below his typical performance. It could be injury, but the skills didn’t decline.

Elbow injuries are always a concern, but aside from that I admit to optimism on Bonderman, and maybe this will be the year he puts it together. It’s not a bad gamble.