Sleepers for keeper leagues and free agents to target for shallower mixed leagues.

I was fortunate to serve as Pat’s wingman in the inaugural player auction of the Independence League, an AL/NL 10 team keeper league. Evidenced by the paucity of my posts, I have not approached Pat’s depth of preparation for this season; I was happy to help with list management and for the most part, let Pat take care of the bidding.

I will leave the auction part of the draft to Pat. On a macro level, we spent two thirds on hitting, and half of the remainder on the bullpen. In our league, after all of the active roster slots are filled and all auction dollars are spent, there is a reserve draft, snake style. All players drafted in the reserve round carry a salary of R9, which means that if they are active major leaguers this year, they can be kept at $9 for next year. Otherwise, an R9 minor leaguer can be kept as a reserve player the following year at no auction dollar cost.

When it came time for the reserve round draft, Pat had to leave to prepare for his radio show. Fortunately, he left me a list of guys I barely heard of to draft in the reserve rounds.

Pat thinks of me as a “snake draft expert.” In reality, I would say more of a snake draft “specialist.” [As my Criminal Law professor once said, “An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less until he knows everything about nothing”]

In my mixed head to head points league (a redraft league), I have the highest three year winning percentage. However, a reserve round draft is far different than a shallow mixed league draft. The one common denominator is the ability to research during the draft - a luxury you cannot afford during an auction, when you must (or at least should) be alert to every player nominated.

Armed with Pat’s barely-legible list, and Baseball Forecaster, I was able to roster some highly skilled players who could make significant contributions to our team this year.

In the AL, we have great depth in hitting, and a solid bullpen. My focus during the reserve round was to draft starters with upside and LIMA relievers. If even one pans out this year, fantastic.

Dana Eveland, Oakland
I remembered that Eveland was a highly touted prospect in the Brewers organization last year, and saw that he is tracked for a spot in the A’s rotation. Looking in the “Major League Equivalencies” section of the ‘Forecaster, I noticed that his BPV (Base Performance Value) was 105 (anything over 100 is considered excellent - Chris Young was a 101 last year).

So far this spring Eveland, age 24, has performed well: 10 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 10 K. If he keeps his walks to a minimum, perhaps he could put up numbers similar to Chris Young’s 2005 rookie campaign (12 wins, 4.28 era, 1.28 whip, BPV 81)

Jason Hammel, TB
Hammel is battling Edwin Jackson for a rotation spot. Jackson has lots of talent, but major issues with control. Hammel, at age 25, pitched 85 innings for TB last year, had a good September, and earned an overall BPV of 82. Jackson’s was 35 last year. Even if Jackson wins the job, he seems likely to lose it within a few starts, and Hammel should be there to pick up the pieces. Like Jackson, Hammel needs to improve his control, averaging 3.6 walks per 9 innings last year. Hammel’s also great insurance against our other “studs” JP Howell ($2) and Andy Sonnanstine ($4). Yikes, we have practically the entire back end of the Rays’ rotation!

Garrett Olsen, Baltimore
Olsen, age 25, looks poised to be the third starter for the Orioles. The Forecaster gives him a BPV of 71 (nothing spectacular, but passable. Although Olson’s control improved by half a walk per 9 from ‘06 to ‘07, his HR/9 rate also increased from 0.6 (good) to 1.2 (bad). Still, in a league with a significant minimum innings requirement, Olsen could provide low-whip innings if needed (albeit at a high ERA with little prospect for many wins on this sorry team.

Chris Britton, NYY
Britton, age 25, qualifies as a “deep sleeper.” Shandler describes him as a “power arm with upside”, and he earned a 98 BPV in AAA ball. Also, he served as Chris Ray’s setup man in 2006 with a 1.17 WHIP in 52 games (at age 23). Given the lack of depth in the Yankee bullpen, already riddled with injuries, Britton could emerge as a useful bullpen roster filler a la:

Jason Frasor, Toronto
1 win, 5 losses, 4.58 era for Toronto in 2007. Why draft him? His WHIP was only 1.23, he struck out over a batter an inning, and rarely surrendered a dinger. Actually, his BPV was 105, and hitters batted only .226 (.245 vs lefties) against him. Frasor’s ERA was artificially high last year, as 39% of his baserunners scored after he left the game. Frasor’s a great guy to have for roster flexibility, to slot in when Garrett Olsen or Jason Hammel is facing a bad matchup (and there are plenty in the AL). And he has experience closing games.

My next post will cover the NL reserve round draft.