Fantasy Baseball Generals

Fantasy Baseball Warfare is a great matter to a nation; it is the ground of death and of life; it is the way of survival and of destruction, and must be examined.–Sun Tzu

Five Players–Arizona Diamondbacks

March 5th, 2008 · No Comments

Patrick DiCaprio

I am going to make this a regular column. Last year I did a bunch of player profiles but wanted to expand it a bit this year, and hopefully this will help with drafting. I will try to do one every day until opening day and it will continue through the season periodically.

This column will hopefully be a regular staple. I am going to do some analysis of players on each team that I think are interesting to fantasy players.

Eric Byrnes Byrnes is the kind of player that will break your heart as a fantasy player. He has strong speed skills, but is really a bit stretched as a regular. Despite last year’s success, he is nowhere near a .300 hitter; his xBA was only .269 and he had a 32% hit rate. Expecting 20 HR and 50 steals is a stretch as he comes down from his peak last year. You could pay for those numbers and get a 12-25-.260 line very easily.

Stephen Drew In many ways Drew is a mirage. He does have skills but so do many players that never achieve success. Looking at his minor league numbers he has only had one excellent year and that was in A ball at Lancaster, where EVERYONE hits. He just did not hit the ball hard last year very often. There is still hope, obviously, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continues to flop. His 2006 ML success was buoyed by a 37% hit rate.

This brings me to:

Carlos Gonzalez Technically I should be waiting until I do Oakland, but he fits in so well with my perception of Drew. Gonzalez, like Drew tore it up at Lancaster. As the 2008 Baseball Prospectus book says, he has a whiff of failure about him, unfairly so but it is there. He has never slugged .500 anywhere but Lancaster, and BP sees him as only a three win player in the next five years, which is no great shakes. He will get a chance to play in Oakland.

Mark Reynolds Admittedly I was a non-believer last year. Yet, unlike Gonzalez and Drew, he hit very well at AA putting up a .306/.394/.537 line. His forecasts are all solid, but he did have a high hit rate in 2007 with fully legitimate power. His contact rate is a big problem at a low 65% which severely limits his BA potential as well as his overall production if pitchers adjust. Caution here is also warranted, but he will likely be a $10 player or less in most auctions.

Brandon Lyon Simply put I see no way he holds onto the closer’s job other than ennui. He had an xERA of 4.94 last year, putting him greatly at risk. An ERA correction in 2008 will result in a few more blown saves as he will be pitching high leverage innings. His K rate and basic performance indicators are far below what one expects from successful closers.

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