Five interesting players on the Orioles.

Luke Scott I have been pimping him for a month now, and mentioned him on the radio show as an AL sleeper. He is apparently taking the Geronimo Berroa career path, and should be a 25 HR source this year if not more. He could easily be a top ten or 15 OF in what is a weak AL OF situation. Note that he hit .305/.400/.593 on the road last year.

Nick Markakis Is it possible for a guy to be such a big sleeper that he ends up overvalued? This could be the case here. That said, he is second only to Alex Rios in my opinion as guys who could bust out and be MVP candidates this year. He increased his BB rate, hit rate and power last year. On the topic of hit rate, note that hitters will not necessarily regress to 30%; truly talented hitters will generally exceed that and they will regress to their own norms. Markakis’ 33% H rate last year may be sustainable.

Cory Doyne Who? This is a guy who could surprise in a pen that is in flux. He has a big 98 mph fastball. He is coming off surgery in March, and has an excellent 47% GB rate combined with a K rate over 9 (49/16 K/BB rate in 44.1 IP). You want to find pitching sleepers, that is how you do it. Look for high GB rates combined with high K rates. If healthy he could surprise and will literally cost nothing in auction leagues. You can probably pick him up for free as a reserve.

Garrett Olson There is a very good lesson here, one that the aspiring fantasy general simply must heed, and it will be a recurring theme in this “five player” series. When players are promoted mid season due to a hot start in the minors they generally fail. Why? Because often times the hot start is the result of luck and not skill. The astute General simply must be able to separate the wheat from the chaff in this situation.

Olson was promoted from AAA on the strength of a 128 IP stint with 120K 39 BB and only 95 hits. He allowed a .253 BABIP, which explains the 95 hits. He was in for a rude awakening, as many players like this are, in the majors when his BABIP corrected to .392. Whoops.

Daniel Cabrera On the Fantasy Baseball Guy show last night Paul Greco mentioned that Cabrera has long been one of Lenny Melnick’s sleepers. After a disastrous 2007 it appears the day of reckoning has arrived. If you are still hoping against hope (as am I when I still hope for that Ladies of Lost pillow fight) take heart in the fact that Cabrera’s ground ball rate ballooned in a good way to almost 50%. He gets the Ks and if he gets these GB again who knows. He also had the worst bullpen support in the majors last year. If you like to gamble here is your chance.