Five interesting players from the Cubbies.

Mark DeRosa Despite his heart scare, it will be a shame if he loses out on a starting job to Mike Fontenot, an Orioles cast off. DeRosa is the NL version of Mark Ellis, he is just solid and will put up a .290 BA. his 80% contact rate and 10% walk rate should limit any downside on the BA front. He is not a great player but for deeper auction leagues where you need an MI that won’t kill you he is solid.

Geovany Soto Here is a guy that fantasy players will differ greatly on. When I look at his stats though I see a guy who had two go-rounds at AAA with 4 and 6 HR respectively before he blossomed in his third try. His season was buoyed by a 37% hit rate last year. Given that he is going as one of the top sleepers at a weak position, he is liable to be over drafted on speculation. He doesn’t hit enough fly balls to be a true power source. Personally, I prefer Mike Napoli, but don’t let me discourage you if you disagree, that’s why they make chocolate and vanilla ice cream. I am more than willing to eat that humble pie if I am wrong.

Rich Hill He just looks poised to break out this year. The possibility that he will revert to his AAA ground ball rates is fodder for delicious speculation. Bid confidently.

Carlos Marmol Here is another player where I see room for caution. though he is a solid sleeper pick on most radars, I think there is a good chance of inflated value. He only had a 33% ground ball rate, which means that 67% of balls in play against him were of the more damaging line drive and fly ball variety. Yet, he only allowed 3 HR last year. PECOTA apparently agrees, giving him an 8% breakout, 25% improve and 51% collapse. Regression to the mean in his home run rate in high leverage innings spells risk.

Sean Gallagher While not quite a “prospect” he was the most interesting to me among their depleted system of guys close to a full time role. I think most analysts are a bit down on him but to me he looks solid. He has a solid minor league record and at least league average offerings. He is prone to the damaging walk but so are many other guys. He is certainly a far better option than Dempster, Marquis or Lieber, not that the Cubs notice.