Looking at five key Tigers.

Curtis Granderson It pains me to say that I think Granderson will be a heart breaker this year. It is easy to look at him and see a top 30/30 guy who will be a stud, but I demur on him for this year. He is close to useless against lefties, with a horrid .494 OPS (that’s OPS not OBP) and he cannot sustain a high batting average with a sub 80% CT rate and a BB/K rate under 0.40. He had a 36% hit rate last year which, though high, is not hugely out of whack. I think a 33-34% rate is much more reasonable, but that 2-3% will also drop his BA a bit. He is a 20-20 guy right now, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we have already seen his peak.

Miguel Cabrera Ignore the soft evidence such as “coming to a new league” or “not knowing the pitchers” and focus on the fact that he will be the first or second most valuable fantasy property in my view this year, fighting it out with David Wright. He is in a great lineup which will result in RBI, he is still on the upswing in performance, and his CT and BB rate went up in the second half last year. Picture me as Homer Simpson–mmmmmmmm Miguel Cabrera.

Zach Miner Taking a page from Lenny Melnick, I just have a good feeling about him. The bullpen is very weak, and is the Achilles heel of this team. Jones is poor (xERA of 5.12 in 2007), Rodney is hurt and Miner could swoop to the rescue; he wouldn’t be the first failed starter to get a surprise shot at the closer’s role and run with it. He gets tons of GB (54% last year) and though he has no other redeeming feature statistically I just have a feeling about him. If you draft him, I hope my feeling isn’t just indigestion.

Yorman Bazardo Another pure speculative pick, he is another starter that I can see getting into relief and then doing so well in the pen that he gets a shot to close if/when Jones falters. His profile is similar to Miner, only he has far better control, with 1.9 BB/9 IP last year in limited action, and a K/BB ratio of a very encouraging 3.0. He is a deep, deep sleeper who could net a big profit in AL-only leagues or in auctions.

Dontrelle Willis This is a guy who will be a big question mark this year, however I take the “pro” side. As I discussed on the radio show last week, on defense alone I expect a nice bounceback. Florida’s defense was second worst in the majors last year in defensive efficiency (the defensive counterpart to BABIP) at .669and the Tigers’ defense is far better (though not phenomenal). Last year the Tigers were 11th in the majors at .699. This was compounded by a career high 46% ground ball rate, which led to a hit rate of 33%. What is it about Florida that generates such poor defensive play? Last year Tampa Bay was a historically bad defense, one of the worst of all time, and the Marlins were terrible also.

The long and short of Willis is that for no other reason that defense, a better team and a better lineup he will be at least a league average to slightly above league average pitcher. And if he isn’t it should be obvious from the get go, so watch him closely in April.