Five players from the Mariners.

This is not a very interesting organization, especially after trading away Adam Jones. However, I’ve done my best to find some players to discuss and they are…

Ichiro Suzuki Is this the year he disappoints? It very well could be. His xBA was below .300 for the 2nd year in a row, and at age 34, his speed has to start declining at some point, which would dramatically reduce his hit rates (BABIP) from the mid to high 30’s to the low 30’s. When that happens, he’s going to be a bust in fantasy leagues as he’ll hit .300 or below, and obviously would see a drop in his SB, run, and rbi totals. Maybe then he finally will decide to flash that “25-30 HR power” he supposedly always displays during batting practice? That would be fun to see.

Brad Wilkerson He should have full-time ABs and if he manages to stay healthy and reach 500 at bats, he could push 30 HRs. He has a ton of power, posting a 168 PX last year, after 149 the previous year, and increased his HR/F ratio to 19%. That was in Texas, and he’s moving to a more pitcher friendly venue, but he hits between 45% and 50% of his balls in play in the air, so he could reach the 30 plateau even with a small drop in the HR/F rate. Even his xBA last year was .260, so he has a shot to be Adam Dunn-like, but worse across the board, and of course likely a free agent in your league (unless you’re in an AL-Only or deep mixed).

Felix Hernandez I gotta talk about him and profess my love. Here’s another one of the few members of the skills trifecta club. He has a solid walk rate, an excellent K rate and around 60% of his balls in play are grounders. He’s been killed by bad luck each of his 1st 2 full years, with both elevated hit rates and HR/F rates. These WILL regress toward league average, as a pitcher with his stuff can’t possibly continue to allow so many hits and HRs like he has. His xERA the last 2 years? 3.12 and 3.14. This just shows you the kind of upside he has when his BABIP and HR/F rates normalize. The only worry is the declining K rate, especially in the 2nd half last year when it dipped to 6.8. For the year, and the 2nd half, the K/9 decline came along with an improved walk rate, so it’s not something to panic over, but certainly worth monitoring. If he could get enough run support to impress the dumb Cy Young voters, he’s a great sleeper candidate for the award.

Jeff Clement Had a solid season at AAA Tacoma last year, posting an .866 OPS and showing nice power with a .222 ISO. He’ll take a walk and he had a decent contact rate. His hitting line wasn’t boosted by a high BABIP, which is a good sign. His MLE from the Baseball Forecaster was .236/.315/.420/.734, which means he’s not quite ready yet. He’s getting a little bit old, as he was 24 in AAA last year, but if he can manage to stay at catcher, he’ll be a welcome addition to the small crop of good hitting catchers in fantasy leagues.

Wladimir Balentien It’s a little sad that I couldn’t find any other major leaguer interesting enough to write about (my apologies to Erik Bedard, but what else needs to be said?!), so here’s minor leaguer #2. Balentien has huge power potential and after disappointing in 2006, recovered to post an .869 OPS in ‘07 at AAA Tacoma, including a .218 ISO. He also dramatically cut down on his strikeout rate, something that I think was necessary for him to become a good major leaguer. In 2006, his contact rate was only 73%, and he improved that to 81% in ‘07, while maintaining his power, an excellent sign. He also will take a walk, putting up walk rates over 10% the last 2 years. He even threw in 15 steals last year with a decent 79% success rate, so he’s a potential 4-category contributor in roto leagues, as I don’t expect his average to really help just yet.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.