Five players from the Devil Rays.

This is one of the teams I was really looking forward to writing about. In fact, I might even end up having a tough time choosing only five players. If it wasn’t playing in perhaps the most difficult division in baseball, this team could be competing for the wild card right now. Either way, they WILL be in several years.

Dioner Navarro He’s been getting quite a bit of hype after his .836 OPS in Aug/Sept, and it might be warranted. Although his contact rate has fallen in the majors to the low 80’s, it was near 90 in the minors, so there is some real upside to his batting average. This is in addition to an xBA of a much more respectable .254 last year, compared to the putrid .227 he actually posted. I can’t imagine a 25% hit rate happening again, so he’s a very good bet to improve that average to “decent for a catcher” territory. The power is also developing, especially after an 8 HR 2nd half in 202 ABs, to go along with a PX spike to 107. He’s guaranteed full-time ABs, since the Rays’ backups are awful, and in a solid lineup, so his RBI and Run totals should be above catcher replacement-level. Don’t bid more than a couple of bucks in a 2-catcher mixed league auction, but he’s certainly a player to target in an AL-Only league.

Andy Sonnanstine I think I’ve mentioned him enough on this site when talking about my drafts, and maybe in some other columns, so why not one last time before the season starts? He has very James Shield-like skills, but with slightly lower strikeouts rates and more flyballs allowed. Those two reasons are why there’s only a tiny chance he will match what Shields did last year. However, with better luck in the BABIP and strand rates departments (due to an improved defense and bullpen), he could put up an ERA in the low-4’s, with a WHIP below 1.30. He’s certainly someone to take a flier on at the end of the draft while your wading through the Doug Davis’, Barry Zitos, and Jon Garlands of the world.

Jason Hammel The winner of the 5th starter competition, I know Patrick had been pimping J.P. Howell (which I absolutely endorse), so I’ll change things up and look at Hammel. He’s pitched 129 innings at the major league level, with ERAs over 6 and over 7, so one might be tempted to just write him off. However, his minor league stats are decent, with an ‘07 that saw him post a 75/28 K/BB ratio in 76 1/3 innings. The more exciting stat might be his 50% GB rate, which he duplicated in ‘06. He hasn’t been able to match those GB%’s in the majors, though, so I’m not sure what’s causing the dropoff. If he can regain his groundball magic, he has a chance to post a mid-4’s ERA with strikeout numbers similar to Sonnanstine. So if you’re deciding between a Paul Byrd or Hammel in your AL-Only league, I hope after reading this you know who to pick.

Dan Wheeler Rick Wilton discussed Troy Percival at the First Pitch Forum several weeks ago and how when he retired in 2006, it was because he partially tore his right flexor pronator muscle mass, but he never actually underwent surgery to fix the problem. Percival’s huge injury risk, plus the xERA over 4 last year brings me to my writeup of Dan Wheeler. From a skills perspective, 2007 was just like 2005 and 2006. In fact, it may have been better, as he pumped up his K/9 to a career best 9.9, while basically maintaining his walk rate. The difference? A 33% hit rate and an insanely low 62% strand rate led to his 5.30 ERA. His mid-3’s xERA was right in line with his previous 2 years. As a flyball pitcher, he’s prone to the home run, but he has fantastic skills, and should be the first to get the call should/when Percival goes down. For all you LIMA Planners, or those in Yahoo leagues with an innings cap where MRs have good value, I urge you to strongly consider Wheeler as the combination of his skills and good chance at saves should provide some nice value.

Desmond Jennings I have to admit, other than seeing his name on some prospect lists, I didn’t know much about Jennings. But looking at his minor league stats, I’m drooling at his potential to become fantasy gold. I’m honestly sitting here trying to figure out which stat in his single-A line is most exciting. Is it the .401 OBP? The only 53 strikeouts in 387 ABs? The almost 1:1 BB/K ratio? The 45 steals in those aforementioned 387 at bats? Or is it his career 77 steals, with a 79% success rate, in 600 at bats? How about the fact that he isn’t just a slap hitting speedster who can draw a walk, but one that actually has some power, as evidenced by his 9 HRs and .150 ISO? He seems very much like the next Carl Crawford, except with more walks, leading to a better OBP, and more steals. The only negative is he’s still only 20 and played all last season at single-A, so you might have to wait a couple of years if you draft him in your keeper league.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.