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Five Players– The Pale Hose

March 10th, 2008 · No Comments

Patrick DiCaprio

Here are five interesting fantasy players from the White Sox.

Alexei Ramirez I have been touting him since the very first radio show, and so far it all looks good. He is only facing down Danny Richar and Juan Uribe. Just take my word for it and go get him. He will be a solid player with 10 HR 10 SB and a .290 average.

Jermaine Dye The alleged bad year last year was really just a bad first half. His second half should be representative of his skills. In the first half he only had a 25% hit rate and a 12% hr/FB rate. His FB rate should still be in the 45% range, keeping his power potential high. I hope I am right since I drafted him in the expert league.

Nick Swisher His 2006 season looks like an outlier to me and I would be reticent to consider him a 30 HR guy again. However, he still has a very solid 46% FB rate which should net him 20-25 HR again. He cannot be a true stud though unless he makes better contact since it severely limits his batting average potential.

Mark Buehrle I see big trouble on the horizon. Though his stats superficially look good he has an expected ERA over four in every single month and for the season his xERA was 4.72 compared to his actual ERA of 3.63. I will admit that he *could* keep it up; it all depends on what you believe about his strand rate of 75%. It may regress or it may be a skill. If you think it is a skill then far be it from me to discourage you, but I consider him to be a risk.

John Danks There are a lot of positive signs here. Danks had a solid 7.1 K rate and a 3.5 BB rate, which is a bit high but really not bad for a rookie. He also was a bit on the unlucky side with a 32% hit rate and a 69% strand rate. One thing that warrants mention here is that the theory that hit rates will regress to 30% presumes that the pitcher is of at least the lowest major league quality. With lots of pitchers that come up from the minors one might be tempted to say that their hit rate will regress but it does not in many cases because the player is not of major league quality. I do think Danks is a major league pitcher and will do better this year. The key will be lowering that 46% fly ball rate.

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