Five players from the Twinkies.

Carlos Gomez He is simply not ready to hit in the majors, so even if he wins a starting role I think you should stay away. Even if you do like him he is almost certain to be overvalued sufficiently that I would not jettison value as a key parameter (remember that “value” is only irrelevant at the top and bottom of the player pyramid) so even if you like him it doesn’t make sense to grab him. This is where I disagree with Baseball HQ, since they project him for a .281 average, but I don’t see how he hits that if he plays everyday.

Kevin Slowey He is a guy I touted on the radio show on Sunday, and I picked him up for $5 in my high stakes auction league. He had 6.3 K/9IP 1.5 BB/9 IP an excellent ratio of 4.3 and on that basis alone I think he can be a successful starter. There may be growing pains, but in AL-only leagues he is a solid end of the rotation pitcher with the potential for a bit more.

Francisco Liriano Everyone wants to know how Liriano will do this year. Here is the stark truth; no matter how vocal the opinion or how well reasoned the argument, the fact is that no one has any secure idea what he will do. Even he has no idea. One cause for concern; as Todd Farino mentioned on the radio show on Sunday, the Twins are going to limit the number of sliders he can throw in a game. The risk here is far too great to draft him in the typical position he has been going. Again though, far be it from me to dissuade anyone when dealing with this type of commodity since some players may merely want to speculate on the risk, but I wouldn’t.

Delmon Young I can’t see that he is quite ready for the breakout just yet. He has a poor batting eye, walking in only 4% of his plate appearances, and slugged barely over .400. What is worse is that he hit tons of groundballs, with a 46% GB rate. The power and overall offensive package is still a work in progress. Baseball Prospectus is far more sanguine than I, giving him a projected .294 BA. He should definitely improve off of last season but the extent to which this will occur is an open question , but if he doesn’t improve his plate discipline it could be far less than hoped.

Justin Morneau Another guy that I have no idea what to make of for 2008. 3 HR in his last 63 games?? A .222 BA in Aug/Sept?? His season overall looks to be in line with his prior performance so I am tempted to give him a pass. However, Baseball Prospectus gives him a 36% chance of improving (so a 64% chance of getting worse) and a 27% chance of collapse (decrease in base performance of 20% or more). Perhaps I can make a hat, a broach or a pterodactyl.