A recap of my first draft of the year!

I know every blogger loves to write about their own drafts and I also know that you probably don’t really care to read about our teams and a rundown of every single pick. So what am I going to do? Bore you with another post about my draft with a rundown of every single pick! Because it’s fun and this was my first real draft of the year, so you’re going to love every word of this post. And besides, I don’t think I’ve ever actually done this before, so I’m truly excited.

First, a quick note on the league settings: it’s a 5×5 H2H league where you get 1 win for each category you win for the week; daily transactions, 30 inning minimum per week; positions are weird- C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, Infielder, 4 OF, Util, 8 P, 6 Bench

I have only played in a H2H league once in my life about 7 years ago, and that was a points league. I vowed never to join one again since there is way too much luck involved. However, I was convinced into joining this league because it’s with my brother (his 1st fantasy baseball league!!) and it was only $50, so I said what the heck. Plus, I figured the competition would be bad. Ok, enough babbling, onto my strategy…

The Strategy

As I just mentioned, I’ve never done a 5×5 H2H league so I really wasn’t sure about strategy compared with a traditional roto league. I did come up with one that I think (hope) will work. I planned to use 4 of my 6 bench slots on pitchers, drafting a total of 12. In addition, I wanted to draft 8 starters and 4 closers. With daily transactions, I would always keep my 4 closers active, rotating my 8 starters in when they pitch. I assume I won’t have any days where 5 pitchers start, but if I did, I’d just have to bench a closer. This strategy would almost guarantee I win Saves, Ks and Wins each week. And given that I consider myself good at drafting pitching without having to draft them early, I was confident I could also win ERA and WHIP most weeks, even if my staff pitched the most innings.

As always, I expected to load up on hitting early (like everyone always plans to do), while waiting until the end of the first 10 rounds to draft pitching and execute the pitching side of my strategy.

Last, I create my own projections and calculate dollar values for every player using the valuation method by Todd Zola from the old Mastersball.com website. I used a 62/38 split to account for the 11/8 hitting/pitching roster split, compared to the standard 14/9 hitters/pitchers where I normally go with a 70/30 split. I added Yahoo’s ADP to my spreadsheet (since the draft was on Yahoo) and planned to draft the players that I valued higher than the ADP 1 round earlier to ensure I got the player.

The Results

Round 1, Pick 3- David Wright A-Rod went first of course, and I was actually hoping Hanley would go 2nd. I actually had Hanley at #1 overall, worth a couple of cents more than A-Rod, and $6 more than Wright (I actually had Johan 3rd, $3 less than A-Rod/Hanley and $3 more than Wright, but no way I take a pitcher 3rd, especially in a less competitive league), but I didn’t want to have to decide between the 2. Shockingly, Pujols went 2nd (someone hasn’t been paying attenting during the off-season!). My worries about Hanley’s shoulder overshadowed the $6 value difference and I ended up going with the much safer Wright. I also was secretly hoping for Ron Shandler’s stamp of approval with this pick.

Round 2, Pick 22- Carlos Lee Wasn’t jumping up and down with this pick, as I was hoping some value would fall to me, but alas no one did. Did have him as the 19th most valuable hitter though, so I’m not complaining, just hoped for better.

Round 3, Pick 27- Mark Teixeira Not much to say here, had him worth about the same as Lee, as the 20th best hitter. Like Lee and Wright, low injury risk, and quite reliable.

Round 4, Pick 46- Garrett Atkins Continuing with the theme of reliable, low injury risk, and was my 37th most valuable player (including pitchers).

Round 5, Pick 51- Travis Hafner Qualifies at 1st in Yahoo, a big plus. Took him a little earlier than I valued him, but that’s because I was skipping pitchers. Only projected a modest rebound to 30 HRs, but with a .296 average. Certainly has upside for much more.

Round 6, Pick 70- Rafael Furcal I expect a complete rebound as last year he was clearly hurt by his ankle injury. Had him 48th overall, good for the end of the 4th round, so I made sure to take him here before his 7th round ADP.

Round 7, Pick 75- Brian McCann Kinda surprised he was still available at 75. MDC from March 10 has him averaging the 54th pick, and I’m pretty sure that is for a 1 catcher league. I had him 72nd overall, so he wasn’t much of a value for me, meaning he is usually overvalued.

Round 8, Pick 94- Juan Pierre 1st controversial pick of the draft for me. I am 99% sure Torre will play him full time, and with that assumption, I had him as the 36th most valuable player. Yes, 36th. That’s what 60 steals with a .290 average and 90+ runs does for your value. He’s undervalued every year to begin with, and then adding in the playing time questions caused him to be even more so this year. But I couldn’t wait any longer and see him snatched up in the 9th, with a team getting 3rd round value. So hopefully Torre continues to choose playing overpaid veterans over actually winning the most games.

Round 9, Pick 99- Daisuke Matsuzaka The beginning of my pitching run starts in the 9th round. Have him as the 14th most valuable starter and 54th overall, assuming my 62/38 hitting/pitching split was calculated accurately.

Round 10, Pick 118- Javier Vazquez Undervalued every year no matter what stats he puts up. Finally posted an ERA in line with his peripherals and still gets no respect. Fine by me, he’ll just join my team once again. Had him as the 17th best starter.

Round 11, Pick 123- James Shields 100% for real. And with a much improved bullpen and defense, could get even better. I actually had him as the 12th best starter, ahead of Daisuke and Vazquez. But drafted them first because of ADP and their greater name recognition. I figured Shields had the best chance of the 3 of still being available here, and I was correct.

Round 12, Pick 142- Huston Street The first closer of my planned 4. Why do guys like Saito and Wagner go several rounds ahead of Street when Street is as highly skilled as any of the top closers? If you have the skills, the saves WILL come. He was my 7th ranked closer, providing 7th round value.

Round 13, Pick 147- Dustin McGowan Everyone’s favorite sleeper. It seems like his ADP still hasn’t moved up enough to match the hype. Going 169th according to MDC’s March 10 report? Are you kidding me? High GB%, good K rate, and improving BB rate? Sign me up. I have him as the 22nd most valuable starter, and providing 7th round value! There’s a great chance he ends up on all 4 of my teams.

Round 14, Pick 166 and Round 15, Pick 171- Joakim Soria and Eric Gagne Figured I’d lump the 2 together. Closers #2 and #3. Soria’s got great skills and should end up on most of my teams. Gagne still has solid skills and if healthy, will be undervalued in all your drafts.

Round 16, Pick 190- Kelly Johnson Finally time to get my 2nd baseman and was happy to nab Johnson this late. Had him valued right around here. And yes, this is Brave #3, which as a Braves fan, I’m quite excited about.

Round 17, Pick 195- Michael Bourn Yes, even after having already drafted Pierre. Pl
aying full-time, he’s a LOCK for 50 steals. I couldn’t possibly pass up the value here and let someone else draft a guy I have worth a 10th round pick in the 17th or later, regardless of whether I have enough steals already or not.

Round 18, Pick 214- Lastings Milledge Suprised he wasn’t drafted earlier in a NJ-based league with a bunch of Mets fans who all know Milledge. Another sleeper getting tons of reputable hype (gotta love the PECOTA breakout/improve percents). Should hit 2nd or 3rd and go at least 15/15.

Round 19, Pick 219- Greg Maddux One of my favorite all-time players, his xERA has shown he’s been getting unlucky the past couple of years. Doesn’t walk anyone and gets groundballs, could easily post one last year of a sub-4.00 ERA.

Round 20, Pick 238- Randy Johnson Had by far the most upside of the pitchers left. If healthy, obviously a HUGE IF, he still has the skills, as evidenced by his great peripherals last year. If he gets injured again, big deal, he was my 20th rounder!

Round 21, Pick 243- George Sherrill Loved to see the groans in the chat box when everyone realized he was actually the last closer left, not Brian Wilson taken in Rd 18. Closer #4 for me to complete that portion of my pitching strategy. Don’t love him, but is the front-runner right now to close and has pretty decent skills.

Round 22, Pick 262- Adam Jones Looking for an OFer with power and upside for my 1st hitting bench slot, and he was easily the top choice.

Round 23, Pick 267- Jason Kubel Another sleeper-esque OFer who if you could get him this late, might actually be able to keep his sleeper tag. I needed another power/upside OFer, more on why later.

Round 24, Pick 286- John Patterson I think I draft him every year. I got the thumbs up on his health from Baseball Injury Report’s Rick Wilton while at the First Pitch Forum and that was enough for me to take the gamble. We all know how good he could be when healthy…finger-crossing time.

Round 25, Pick 291- Andy Sonnanstine Another sleeper du jour for those looking for the “next James Shields.” Debating between him and Kevin Slowey who I valued the same. Sonny’s rotation spot seems more guaranteed than Slowey’s and I think he has better K potential.

The Team

C- Brian McCann (Rd 7, 75th overall)
1B- Mark Teixeira (3, 27)
2B- Kelly Johnson (16, 190)
SS- Rafael Furcal (6, 70)
3B- David Wright (1, 3)
IF- Garrett Atkins (4, 46)
OF- Carlos Lee (2, 22)
OF- Juan Pierre (8, 94)
OF- Michael Bourn (17, 195)
OF- Lastings Milledge (18, 214)
Util- Travis Hafner (5, 51)
BN- Adam Jones (22, 262)
BN- Jason Kubel (23, 267)

P- Daisuke Matsuzaka (9, 99)
P- Javier Vazquez (10, 118)
P- James Shields (11, 123)
P- Dustin McGowan (13, 147)
P- Huston Street (12, 142)
P- Joakim Soria (14, 166)
P- Eric Gagne (15, 171)
P- George Sherrill (21, 243)
BN- Greg Maddux (19, 219)
BN- Randy Johnson (20, 238)
BN- John Patterson (24, 286)
BN- Andy Sonnanstine (25, 291)

The Analysis

I took every team’s hitting and projected the offensive standings points as if it were a regular roto league, just so I know where my offense stands. As expected, I was near the bottom in HRs and RBIs, 1st in RUNs, 2nd in AVG, and 1st (by far) in SBs. After following up the Pierre pick by drafting Bourn later and going for SB overkill, I realized that with daily matchups, I should rotate my OFers based on my opponent and where I’m at during the week. If I’m playing a power heavy team with little speed, bench Pierre or Bourn or both, and start Jones and Kubel, for example. And if I take a commanding early SB lead, I could bench both mid-week and start Jones and Kubel for a power boost. So with this strategy, I should be guaranteed to win SBs every single week, RUNs and AVG most weeks, and play the matchups well to win HRs and RBIs at least half the time.

The pitching was executed almost perfectly. I was reminded why I hate straight drafts when in the 9th round I planned to take Liriano (10th Rd ADP), but sure enough he was literally taken the pick before me. So I settled with Daisuke. I’m not really worried about the pitching as during the year I’m always able to buy low and sell high with ease, but I do like the upside. I plan to keep all my closers active to help my ERA and WHIP and guarantee a win in saves, then activate my starters to build up a Win and K lead, leaving them on the bench only if I have those 2 categories secured and want to preserve my ERA and WHIP.

Well that’s it folks, I realize I may have set the blogging record for longest post. So for the 2 of you who made it through to the end before dozing off, I thank you and invite you to let me know how I did, or if you think my “Fantasy Baseball General” title should be immediately stripped. And for the 2nd time, yes I’m aware that SBs aren’t the only category, but I’m all about value during drafts. I’ll be praying Bourn and/or Pierre get off to a great start so I can look to trade either for some power. Then again, I do love knowing that I’m pretty much guaranteed to win steals every single week owning them both.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.